The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
released its annual forecast of commercial space business last week,
predicting to industry watchers a boom time ahead.
The report, the “Annual Projection of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Commercial
Payload and Launch Markets, 1997-2006” contained twin scenarios for each
phase of space business: a medium growth forecast and a high growth
prediction. Its medium growth projection predicts four “Big LEO” satellite
constellations and two “Little LEO” systems will be orbited by commercial
firms during the decade from 1997 to 2006. This represents an increase of
one “Big LEO” system projection above the 1996 forecast released a year
ago. A “Big LEO” system is a satellite constellation which supports voice
communications via hand-held telephones. “Little LEO” systems are those
which support non-voice communications services from space such as paging,
remote monitoring, and tracking of packages and vehicles.
In its high growth scenario, FAA predicts five Big LEOs, three Little
LEOs. and a large broadband LEO space system will be deployed during the
same period. A broadband LEO space system would support high speed data,
video conferencing, and other more advanced technology communications from
space. The 1997 prediction is an increase of one Big LEO over last year’s
forecast. It also marks the first time FAA has included broadband systems
in its commercial space market projections.This addition results in a 57
percent increase in the total number of commercial satellite payloads
projected to be orbited in space during the forecast period.
In the field of space launch, the FAA also sees growth opportunities. In
its medium growth view, 96 to 130 small launches (under 10,000 pounds to
LEO) and between 74 and 100 medium to large launches during the 1997-2006
time frame are predicted. In the high growth scenario, between 132 and 174
small launches are forecast. Between 120 and 156 medium to large booster
flights are projected in the forecast period.
The studies are done by the FAA’s Office of Commercial Space
Transportation, operating under the Associate FAA Administrator for Space
Transportation. The studies have been done each year since 1994. Data is
used by both government and industry to plan space policy, international
business negotiations, and corporate market campaigns by industry.
