Continued uncertainty over the merits of mobile satellite communications systems may have a negative impact on the deployment of commercial communications satellites to low-Earth orbit, while the introduction of new, “on-demand” broadband data services is good news for the world¿s major satellite manufacturers, according to the annual assessment of the commercial communications satellite market by Forecast International/DMS.
“Commercial Communications Satellites — 2000-2019,” provides a comprehensive forecast of what is expected to be a very lucrative segment of the aerospace market over the next two decades.
Judging by current satellite backlogs and the fact that the satellite industry, like many aerospace markets, moves along a cyclical path, Forecast International/DMS expects both low-Earth orbiting (LEO) and geosynchronous (GEO) satellite production to remain strong overall in the coming 20 years if high volume LEO projects — Teledesic and Skybridge — move to the development stage.
Long-term annual output, however, is unlikely to match the relatively high production rates expected in the short term.
Forecast International/DMS expects the worldwide satellite industry will produce nearly 775 geosynchronous-orbiting commercial communications spacecraft during the coming two decades.
The value of this production, spread among more than a dozen manufacturers, is about $80 billion. Over the next 20 years, manufacturers will produce an additional 1,800 satellites slated for deployment in lower Earth orbits; these spacecraft will be worth about $30.5 billion.
“Commercial communications satellite production is expected to remain relatively robust in the coming years, especially for those units earmarked to provide high-capacity broadband-on-demand data services,” said Ray Peterson, Forecast International¿s Space Systems Analyst.
“The jury¿s still out, however, on whether satellite constellations designed to provide global mobile communications will successfully compete against terrestrial cellular systems.”
Forecast International/DMS, headquartered in Newtown, Conn., provides market intelligence services for the aerospace, defense, power and transportation industries, specializing in long-range forecasts.
