User terminal demand soars as ground site trends shift

User terminal demand soars as ground site trends shift
by Erica Marchand
Paris, France (SPX) Nov 22, 2024

Novaspace has unveiled the fifth edition of its Ground Segment Market Prospects report, offering an in-depth analysis of commercial and governmental satcom, Earth Observation, and GSaaS markets. The report highlights revenue forecasts and market trends expected to shape the ground segment industry over the next decade. It also examines the challenges of declining demand for traditional applications and the rise of vertically integrated players capturing significant growth opportunities.

The report reveals that commercial satellite user terminals (UTs) have nearly tripled in number over the last three years, largely driven by consumer and enterprise adoption. It also delves into developments in flat panel antennas and, for the first time, includes availability timelines and revenue forecasts for multi-orbit commercial user terminals. Military satellite communications terminal projections are revised upwards, with the report detailing increased demand driven by geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Gateway and Ground Station Market Insights
Key industry developments include the spin-off of Eutelsat's ground segment to EQT, a Swedish investment firm, and SES's acquisition of Intelsat. The report assesses the implications of such moves and explores potential strategies for operators, such as adopting 'as-a-service' models, third-party teleports, and gateway consolidation.

One new feature of the report is an analysis of commercial gateway addressability. "Our research shows that while commercial gateway antennas are poised to grow in number, most of the growth we are seeing is for NGSO gateways - the vast majority of which are actually captive," explained Alix Rousseliere, Consultant at Novaspace. The report also underscores the importance of regulatory approvals for NGSO gateways, a critical factor influencing deployment timelines, as highlighted by experiences with Eutelsat OneWeb.

"Though there will always be an incompressible amount of hardware required for satellite operations, both on the ground and in space, there is a marked shift towards virtual and software-defined solutions and associated business models," Rousseliere added. Emerging trends such as virtualization, edge computing, and Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) integration are poised to redefine the ground segment landscape.

Optical Technology Projections
The report provides insights into optical technologies, including optical inter-satellite links (OISLs) and their implications for ground stations. For the first time, it includes high-level market forecasts for optical ground stations (OGSs), underscoring their potential impact on the sector.