Nearly 200 countries are supposed to publish updated climate plans by early February, but so far only three have done so.
On Wednesday, the UK became the latest, announcing during the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan that it would raise its target to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
All eyes will be on other big polluters like China, India and the United States, though future US climate action is unclear following Donald Trump's election.
- Why do they matter? -
The world has agreed to try and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but is nowhere near on track.
Above this threshold, scientists say humanity risks disastrous consequences from volatile weather to major ecological "tipping points" at land and sea.
Last month, the United Nations warned that even if all existing plans are implemented in full, temperatures would rise 2.6C by the century's end, a catastrophic outcome.
The UN says the next round of climate plans must show a "quantum leap" in ambition to avert the worst.
The G20 -- which accounts for 77 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions -- is under particular pressure to step up.
- Early movers -
Just before COP29 opened in Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates announced a 47 percent reduction in emissions by 2035 compared with 2019 in its updated climate plan.
Observers said the roadmap failed to account for exported emissions -- including those from its sales of crude oil abroad.
Next year's UN climate host, Brazil, has partly unveiled its plan, increasing its emissions reduction target from a 59 percent cut by 2035, from 2005 levels, to a 67 percent reduction.
It is expected to unveil a more complete plan during COP29.
Plans from other major emitters, like the European Union and China, are not expected until next year.
And the current US government could soon outline Washington's new pledge, despite questions over Trump following through once in office.
David Waskow, of the World Resources Institute, said it would help guide American cities, states and businesses wishing to continue climate action under Trump.
"It also sends an important signal internationally, a set of benchmarks for what the US ought to do," he added.
- What do countries need to do? -
By signing the Paris accord, nearly 200 nations agreed to halt rising temperatures "well below 2C" and strive for the safer goal of 1.5C.
But it did not prescribe how to get there.
The deal left it up to countries to voluntarily chart their own plans and targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
These include emission reduction targets and measures to achieve them, such as rolling out renewable energy, electrifying transport, and ending deforestation.
There is no set template for countries to follow but richer countries -- historically the largest emitters -- have a responsibility to pledge the deepest emission cuts.
The plans must be reviewed every five years, with each update supposed to be more ambitious than the last.
This time around countries are expected to improve their 2030 targets and outline economy-wide action they will take to 2035.
- What's the aim? -
An agreement at last year's COP28 climate summit "encouraged" countries to come forward with plans aligned with halting warming to 1.5C.
To have a hope of meeting that goal, emissions must be slashed 42 percent by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035, the UN's Environment Programme said last month.
Currently, however, emissions are continuing to rise.
Keeping 1.5C on track would require a collective effort "only ever seen following a global conflict", it added.
Without pulling together "on a scale and pace never seen before... the 1.5C goal will soon be dead," said UNEP executive director Inger Andersen.
The big moment for assessing progress towards the 1.5C goal comes at a crunch COP30 climate summit in Brazil next year.
- What about fossil fuels? -
Scientists and the International Energy Agency have said that developing new fossil fuel projects is incompatible with halting warming to 1.5C.
But many fossil fuel producing countries argue that new oil and gas projects will be needed as the world transitions to net zero emissions.
Countries are under pressure to outline in their updated plans how they intend to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, something all nations agreed at last year's COP.
Lame-duck US climate team vows to be 'effective' at COP29
Baku (AFP) Nov 12, 2024 -
They may be out of a job when Donald Trump takes office in two months, but US officials kept a busy schedule at UN climate talks, reminding jittery countries that global action had survived his first term.
President Joe Biden's lame-duck climate envoy, John Podesta, scurried back and forth to meetings and events across the cavernous halls of the COP29 conference in Baku.
Among the slew of pavilions put up by countries to host panel discussions, it was business as usual at the US site, where it is hosting chats throughout the two-week gathering.
The United States is also in the thick of complex negotiations to reach a deal on dramatically increasing financing to help poorer countries adapt to climate change and transition to cleaner energy.
But the return of climate-sceptic Trump, who has vowed to pull the US out of the Paris agreement again, remained a hot topic of conversation.
"There's no doubt that the lack of federal action on climate change is a big problem, and it's going to hobble US climate action," said Rachel Cleetus, a policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
"But here at COP29 the Biden administration is still a government, and we expect them here to show leadership, take responsibility and push for ambitious outcomes at this COP in the negotiations in the next two weeks," she said.
- 'Effective participant' -
Podesta, who only took the job earlier this year, kicked off his visit Monday by seeking to reassure countries that work to contain climate change would continue in the US, even if Trump puts the issue on the "back burner".
On Tuesday, he co-headlined a summit on methane alongside his Chinese counterpart and the COP29 president during which he announced that oil and gas companies would be charged a fee for methane emissions in the US.
For his part, Ali Zaidi, Biden's climate adviser, said Tuesday that he has been pointing out "what we witnessed between 2017 and 2021" -- Trump's first term.
Trump was unable to roll back former president Barack Obama's solar and wind tax credits, while multilateral development banks continued to ramp up their capacity on climate finance, he said.
He added that developed countries were still able to meet a target of providing $100 billion in annual climate aid to poorer countries in 2022, a year after Trump left office. (That was two years later than promised, however).
"My big picture view on climate finance is (that) we've seen not just the US, but other countries zig and zag over the course of... COPS," Zaidi said.
"There's been a benefit in setting ambitious targets far out."
Ramping up climate finance is at the heart of the negotiations in Baku, with some nations pushing for the aid to be increased tenfold to $1 trillion per year.
"I think we will be an effective participant in a conversation that should conclude successfully over the course of the next two weeks," Zaidi said.
- 'Don't hide behind US election' -
A veteran negotiator from an African country told AFP that it appears that US negotiators might be making modest demands in the hope that the next administration would not object to the outcome of COP29.
Cleetus said other countries should put pressure on the US during the talks.
"Countries should not hide behind the US election outcome not to do the right thing, because everybody knows what's needed right now to secure our climate goals," she said.
Germany's climate negotiator, Jennifer Morgan, said she saw "strong determination" from countries to work together despite the US election's outcome.
"The mood here is a very determined mood to move forward in implementing and accelerating the energy transformation that we decided last year (at COP28 in Dubai) and in getting an ambitious and fair climate finance outcome," she told AFP.
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