NOAA study shows promise of forecasting meteotsunamis

On the afternoon of April 13, 2018, a large wave of water surged across Lake Michigan and flooded the shores of the picturesque beach town of Ludington, Michigan, damaging homes and boat docks, and flooding intake pipes. Thanks to a local citizen's photos and other data, NOAA scientists reconstructed the event in models and determined this was the first ever documented meteotsunami in the Great Lakes caused by an atmospheric inertia-gravity wave.

An atmospheric inertia-gravity wave is a wave of air that can run from 6 to 60 miles long that is created when a mass of stable air is displaced by an air mass with significantly different pressure. This sets in motion a wave of air with rising and falling pressure that can influence the water below, as it synchronizes with water movement on the lake's surface like two singers harmonizing.

"That meteotsunami was hands down off the chart awesome," said Debbie Maglothin of Ludington who took photos of the event. "The water in between the breakwaters didn't go down like the water on the outside of them, so it created waterfalls that cascaded over the breakwaters. Had this event occurred during summer it could have washed people right off the breakwaters."

Meteotsunamis generated from this type atmospheric condition are common around the globe, but in the Great Lakes, the few well documented meteotsunamis have been driven by sudden severe thunderstorms where both winds and air pressure changes have played significant roles.

Combining water and weather models
While there are currently no forecast models that effectively predict meteotsunamis in the U.S., new NOAA research based on the Ludington wave demonstrates that existing NOAA numerical weather prediction models and hydrodynamic forecast models may enable scientists to predict these meteotsunami-driving atmospheric waves minutes to hours in advance. The research is published in a special edition of the journal Natural Hazards about meteotsunamis.

"The good news with this type of meteotsunami is that it is easier to predict than ones triggered by thunderstorms," said Eric Anderson, an oceanographer at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and lead author of the study. "Our short-range weather models can pick up these atmospheric pressure waves, whereas predicting thunderstorms is more difficult."

Meteotsunamis are a lesser known category of tsunami. Unlike the more well known tsunami - such as the catastrophic 2004 Boxing Day tsunami in Indonesia, which was caused by an earthquake on the seafloor, meteotsunamis are caused by weather, in particular some combination of changing air pressure, strong winds and thunderstorm activity.

"Because the lakes are relatively small, meteotsunamis typically need more than a jump in air pressure to drive them," said Anderson. "That's where the thunderstorms and wind come in to give them a push."

Great Lakes have history of meteotsunamis
Meteotsunamis occur around the world, and are known to occur in the United States primarily on the Great Lakes and along the East and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Meteotsunami waves in the Great Lakes can be particularly insidious because they can bounce off the shoreline and come back again when the skies are clear. They are relatively rare and typically small, the largest producing three to six foot waves, which only occur about once every 10 years.

Predicting these waves in advance would give communities potentially life-saving warnings and would allow residents and businesses to take measures to better protect property. The Ludington meteotsunami resulted in some property damage but no serious injuries. Had the meteotsunami struck in the summer when swimmers, anglers and vacationers flock to the lakeshore beaches, parks and waters, it might have been a different story, as was the case with a meteotsunami that took the lives of eight people in Chicago in June 1954.

"It's a gap in our forecasting," said Anderson. "With this study and other research we are getting closer to being able to predict them in advance."

Research paper

Related Links
NOAA
Bringing Order To A World Of Disasters
When the Earth Quakes
A world of storm and tempest

Tweet

Thanks for being there;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.

SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5+ Billed Monthly

paypal only

SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once

credit card or paypal

Japan marks decade since 2011 quake, tsunami and nuclear disaster
Hisanohama, Japan (AFP) March 11, 2021
Japan on Thursday marks 10 years since the worst natural disaster in the country's living memory: a powerful earthquake, deadly tsunami and nuclear meltdown that traumatised a nation. Around 18,500 people were killed or left missing in the disaster, most of them claimed by the towering waves that swept across swathes of the northeast coast after one of the strongest quakes ever recorded. The ensuing nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant blanketed nearby areas with radiation, re ... read more