Milan neighborhoods face rising cardiovascular risks during extreme heat events

Milan neighborhoods face rising cardiovascular risks during extreme heat events
by Erica Marchand
Paris, France (SPX) Dec 11, 2024

A study by the D-Hygea Lab at the Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering at the Politecnico di Milano, in collaboration with the Regional Emergency Agency (AREU), has shed light on the severe impact of heat waves on cardiovascular health in Milan. The research found that in 18 districts categorized as highly vulnerable, representing 23% of the city's population, the likelihood of cardiovascular emergencies surges by 22% during extreme heat days compared to normal days. Conversely, the risk increase in 20 less vulnerable districts was not deemed statistically significant.

The analysis highlights particular areas of concern, including Buenos Aires - Porta Venezia and Loreto-Casoretto, where a high percentage of elderly residents contributes to elevated cardiovascular risks. More resilient districts, such as Gorla-Precotto and Porta Magenta, benefit from mitigating factors like public fountains and green spaces. The findings suggest that districts with higher proportions of elderly and highly educated residents face greater risk, whereas public fountains and a higher percentage of female residents are associated with lower emergency rates during heat waves.

From 2017 to 2022, the study analyzed 64,881 cardiovascular emergency incidents, including 114 days of extreme heat, defined as days with apparent temperatures above the 95th percentile. The most extreme day was June 27, 2019, with an average temperature of 36C. Using artificial intelligence, researchers divided Milan into three socio-urban clusters - Central, Residential, and Suburban - showing that factors such as the proportion of elderly residents, fountain density, and greenery play a crucial role in vulnerability.

"This study allows us to clearly visualize where and how extreme heat affects the cardiovascular health of residents," explains Enrico Gianluca Caiani, professor of Bioengineering at the Politecnico di Milano. "These data can guide targeted policies, such as increasing green areas in the most vulnerable districts."

The methodology developed for Milan could be adapted for other cities by incorporating local variables and datasets. The research team, including Professor Caiani and researchers Julia Nawaro and Lorenzo Gianquintieri, has also begun collaborations with the Municipality of Milan and participated in international projects like the European Space Agency's URBANA, which examines urban heat using satellite data.

Research Report:Neighborhood determinants of vulnerability to heat for cardiovascular health: a spatial analysis of Milan, Italy