24/7 Space News
SHAKE AND BLOW
Japan's 'megaquake' warning explained
Japan's 'megaquake' warning explained
By Katie Forster
Tokyo (AFP) Aug 9, 2024

Japan's earthquake scientists say the country should prepare for a possible "megaquake" one day that could kill hundreds of thousands of people -- although they stress the warning does not mean a colossal tremor is imminent.

The Japan Meteorological Association (JMA) warning is the first issued under new rules drawn up after a 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster killed around 18,500 people.

What does the warning say?

The JMA's "megaquake advisory" warns that "if a major earthquake were to occur in the future, strong shaking and large tsunamis would be generated".

"The likelihood of a new major earthquake is higher than normal, but this is not an indication that a major earthquake will definitely occur during a specific period of time," it added.

The advisory concerns the Nankai Trough "subduction zone" between two tectonic plates in the Pacific Ocean, where massive earthquakes have hit in the past.

What is the Nankai Trough?

The 800-kilometre (500-mile) undersea trough runs from Shizuoka, west of Tokyo, to the southern tip of Kyushu island.

It has been the site of destructive quakes of magnitude eight or nine every century or two.

These so-called "megathrust quakes", which often occur in pairs, have been known to unleash dangerous tsunamis along Japan's southern coast.

In 1707, all segments of the Nankai Trough ruptured at once, unleashing an earthquake that remains the nation's second-most powerful on record.

That quake -- which also triggered the last eruption of Mount Fuji -- was followed by two powerful Nankai megathrusts in 1854, and then a pair in 1944 and 1946.

How much is at stake?

Japan's government has previously said the next magnitude 8-9 megaquake along the Nankai Trough has a roughly 70 percent probability of striking within the next 30 years.

In the worst-case scenario 300,000 lives could be lost, experts estimate, with some engineers saying the damage could reach $13 trillion with infrastructure wiped out.

"The history of great earthquakes at Nankai is convincingly scary," geologists Kyle Bradley and Judith A Hubbard wrote in their Earthquake Insights newsletter.

And "while earthquake prediction is impossible, the occurrence of one earthquake usually does raise the likelihood of another", they explained.

"A future great Nankai earthquake is surely the most long-anticipated earthquake in history -- it is the original definition of the 'Big One'."

How worried should people be?

Japan is reminding people living in quake zones to take general precautions, from securing furniture to knowing the location of their nearest evacuation shelter.

Many households in the country also keep a disaster kit handy with bottled water, long-life food, a torch, radio and other practical items.

But there's no need to panic -- there is only a "small probability" that Thursday's magnitude 7.1 earthquake is a foreshock, according to Bradley and Hubbard.

"One of the challenges is that even when the risk of a second earthquake is elevated, it is still always low," they said.

"For instance, in California the rule of thumb is that any given earthquake has around five percent chance of being a foreshock."

Related Links
Bringing Order To A World Of Disasters
When the Earth Quakes
A world of storm and tempest

Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters
Tweet

RELATED CONTENT
The following news reports may link to other Space Media Network websites.
SHAKE AND BLOW
Two powerful earthquakes hit off Japan: USGS
Tokyo (AFP) Aug 8, 2024
A 6.9-magnitude earthquake followed by a 7.1 tremor struck off southern Japan on Thursday, the United States Geological Survey said, with the local meteorological agency warning of tsunamis striking coastal areas. Tsunamis of up to one metre were expected to arrive or have arrived in some coastal areas in Kyushu and Shikoku islands, broadcaster NHK reported. "Tsunamis will strike repeatedly. Please do not enter the sea or approach the coast until the warning is lifted," the Japan Meteorological ... read more

SHAKE AND BLOW
ISS Crew Conducts Historic Archaeological Survey in Space

Cygnus resupply spacecraft reaches ISS with four tons of supplies, experiments

Ascending Node Technologies Releases Innovative Spaceline Visualization Software

Russian space agency says break with West cost $2.1 bn

SHAKE AND BLOW
Rocket Lab launches fifth StriX satellite for Synspective

One SpaceX launch scrubbed, another still a go

Rocket Lab Plans Next Electron Launch Eight Days After Recent Mission

SpaceX launches 21 satellites from Florida; another one set Sunday

SHAKE AND BLOW
NASA Trains Machine Learning Algorithm for Mars Sample Analysis

A Yellow Jacket on Mars

One year on 'Mars': Inside NASA's ultra-realistic isolation study

Has NASA found evidence of ancient life on Mars

SHAKE AND BLOW
Shenzhou XVIII Crew Conducts Emergency Drill on Tiangong Space Station

Beijing Unveils 'Rocket Street' to Boost Commercial Space Sector

Shenzhou XVII Crew Shares Post-Mission Insights with Media

Shenzhou XVIII Crew Successfully Completes Second Spacewalk

SHAKE AND BLOW
Beijing Institute of Technology Unveils New Design for Satellite Mega Constellations

China launches first satellites for Internet megaconstellation into space

AST SpaceMobile Gets FCC Green Light for First Commercial Satellite Launch

Muon Space secures $56M Series B Funding

SHAKE AND BLOW
With sustainable cement, startup aims to eliminate gigatons of CO2

Chile's largest steelmaker suspends production, blames China

UCLA Engineers Develop Shape-Shifting Metamaterial Inspired by Classic Toys

NASA Project Pioneers Future of Rocket Manufacturing

SHAKE AND BLOW
AI Competition Targets Exoplanet Atmospheres

Study Highlights Potential Dangers to Habitable Planets Around Red Dwarfs

Why advanced Technosignatures could evade detection

Astronomers use AI to Detect Stars Consuming Planets

SHAKE AND BLOW
Ariel's Carbon Dioxide Indicates Potential Subsurface Ocean on Uranus' Moon

Spacecraft to swing by Earth, Moon on path to Jupiter

A new insight into Jupiter's shrinking Great Red Spot

Queen's University Belfast Researchers Investigate Mysterious Brightening of Chiron

Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.