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by Staff Writers Riyadh (AFP) March 11, 2010
Gulf states are worried about Iran going nuclear, but equally fret about a dangerous confrontation that could arise from more sanctions and military threats against Tehran, analysts say. US Defence Secretary Robert Gates was in the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday seeking support for a new round of UN sanctions to press Tehran to halt its drive to acquire nuclear weapons capability. Gates told Saudi King Abdullah, Crown Prince and Defence Minister Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, and other top security officials that Iran had "largely rebuffed" US overtures for a conciliatory dialogue, and that Washington was now focused on ramping up pressure on Tehran, according to a US defence official. Gates was only the latest of several high level US visitors, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Energy Secretary Steven Chu, who have pounded the path to Riyadh to sell Saudi leaders on more pressure on Tehran. But Saudis and other Gulf states remain dubious about whether heightened economic sanctions would be supported by enough countries to be effective, and whether they would have the right impact on Tehran. "We have a shared interest in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power," said Mustafa Alani, research director at the Gulf Research Centre, a Dubai think-tank. However, he said, "We don't recognise economic sanctions as going to change the Iranians' mind." "If there are sanctions, it will accelerate their nuclear programme." Gulf states support is crucial, both to put real economic pressure on Iran -- through trade and financial measures -- and to ensure no disruption to global energy needs by a possible cutoff of Iranian oil exports. With their internationally crucial oil production facilities lining the western banks of the Gulf, along with other vulnerable infrastructure like power and water stations, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states are also most vulnerable to any outbreak of hostilities. "They don't want to confront (Iran) because they are on the front line," said Shahram Chubin, a nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International peace in Washington. The Saudis have avoided getting on board publicly with Washington's sanctions drive, though they have made efforts. In recent Riyadh talks they have sought to persuade leaders of India and China, major customers for both Iranian and Saudi oil, to help put pressure on Tehran. According to an unconfirmed Washington Post report, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal travelled to Beijing early this month to discuss the issue. "We think that China can pressure the Iranians more and more for a solution," said Alani. Saudis have also repeatedly said they have a spare oil production capacity of four million barrels a day -- more than 40 percent above current output -- that could replace interrupted Iranian oil exports. Other Gulf states, notably the United Arab Emirates, are also reported to have promised to up oil production if the markets need it. Saudis support but still distrust the US approach, thinking it will simply provoke Tehran, said Chubin. "I think they are sceptical about US ability to marshall adequate support for sanctions," he said. But, he added, "They want it both ways, they don't want to be identified with US policy." The Gulf states will go along if they think Washington is truly committed, he added. "Dubai and the others will do it if the US convinces them it is serious," he said. US credibility on the issue took a blow in the past week when the New York Times reported that Washington has awarded more than 107 billion dollars in payments to foreign and US companies doing business in Iran despite existing US sanctions. The Gulf states have offered few of their own ideas publicly except to pursue negotiations. Cryptically, during Clinton's visit to Riyadh on February 15, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal criticised sanctions as too slow. "Sanctions are a long-term solution," Saud said. "We see the issue in the shorter term because we are closer to the threat ... We need an immediate resolution." Did he mean that Riyadh backed a US or Israeli surgical strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, some asked. One interpretation was that Riyadh sees that immediate progress on the Israeli-Palestinian problem would remove an arena where Iran projects its regional power and tests Riyadh's, supporting radical groups like Hamas and Hezbollah that the Saudis oppose. "More important to us is the Iranian intervention in Arab affairs," said Mansour al-Mansour, head of the Centre for Strategic Studies, a government-linked think-tank in Riyadh. "It's more realistic to focus on what is causing instability around us." The Gulf states nevertheless are not burying their heads in the sand. The Saudis, the UAE and others are building up their naval capacity and missile defence systems -- with Washington's help -- to steel themselves against Iran's military buildup.
earlier related report Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim and his German counterpart Guido Westerwelle said after talks here they agreed it was crucial to prevent the creation of a new nuclear power, but clashed on the issue of sanctions. Tehran must be given further opportunities to prove its willingness to cooperate with the United Nations, Amorim argued. "We want clarity and transparency for the international community over Iran's nuclear program, but what we primarily see is Iran's willingness to negotiate," he told reporters when asked about potential UN sanctions against the Islamic republic. "We want a peaceful solution to the dispute without a great cost to the people of Iran." After the talks in Brasilia, Westerwelle said he saw clear differences in the assessment of the threat posed by Iran's nuclear activities. "We live on different continents and the distance to Iran between Brazil and Europe is great," Westerwelle said, saying European powers were "deeply worried" by Tehran's sensitive nuclear work. "We remain ready to negotiate. But since we have had the impression that our outstretched hand has nothing to grasp... we will have to talk about other measures." Brazil is reluctant to back a US-led drive for a fourth set of sanctions on the Islamic republic, saying the move would likely be "counterproductive." It is a current voting member on the 15-strong United Nations Security Council, though not one of the five permanent veto-wielding members: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States. Adoption of a resolution requires at least nine votes from the council and no veto from the permanent members. Diplomats say Brazil could abstain in a Security Council vote. Germany belongs to the so-called P5-plus-1 group which has for years spearheaded efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear program, which the West fears masks a drive for a nuclear weapon. Iran denies the accusations, saying its program is purely for civilian nuclear energy purposes. Westerwelle met President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva later in Sao Paolo for talks that covered UN reform, international financial markets and "global peace issues." The minister told reporters after the meeting that Brazil had "enormous authority around the world" that was needed to confront threats to global security. "We must work as closely as possible with countries like Brazil if we want to be successful," he said. After their talks, Amorim and Westerwelle both expressed optimism that the outlines of a long-stalled free trade deal between the European Union and South America's Mercosur bloc could be hammered out by the end of the year. Brazil is the fourth and final country on Westerwelle's Latin American tour, which began Sunday with an aid delivery to quake-stricken Chile and continued with stops in Argentina and Uruguay. Earlier Wednesday, Westerwelle met with development minister Miguel Jorge. Delegation sources said Jorge stressed that Brazil wanted to work closely with Germany, which hosted the soccer World Cup in 2006, in preparing for its own turn staging the event in 2014. He said Brazil sought German cooperation in particular in modernizing its stadiums with solar technology. Westerwelle said German firms were strongly interested in developing the civilian use of nuclear energy in Brazil as well as renewable energy. Germany is Brazil's fourth biggest trade partner after China, the United States and Argentina, with trade volume in 2008 of 18.1 billion euros (24.7 billion dollars). Brazil forecasts about five-percent economic growth this year.
Related Links Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com All about missiles at SpaceWar.com Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com
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