. 24/7 Space News .
CLIMATE SCIENCE
Dead tress across Mongolian lava field offer clues to past droughts
by Staff Writers
Tucson AZ (SPX) Mar 19, 2018

Kevin Anchukaitis (plaid shirt) and Oyunsanaa Byambasuren (orange chainsaw chaps) taking pieces of wood from dead trees on Mongolia's Uurgat lava field. The researchers use tree rings to create a record of Mongolia's droughts stretching two centuries into the past.

The extreme wet and dry periods Mongolia has experienced in the late 20th and early 21st centuries are rare but not unprecedented and future droughts may be no worse, according to an international research team that includes a University of Arizona scientist.

The research team developed a climate record stretching 2,060 years into Mongolia's past by using the natural archive of weather conditions stored in the annual rings of Siberian pines. The 10 researchers then combined that information on past climate with computer models that can project future regional climate. The most recent extended drought in Mongolia lasted from 2000 to 2010 and resulted in major livestock die-offs and a massive migration of nomadic herders to the capital city.

"We were able to quantify how unusual this drought was," said co-author Kevin J. Anchukaitis, a University of Arizona associate professor of geography and development. "The drought was not unprecedented, but it has a 900-year return interval. It's a once-in-a-millennium drought."

Finding that future droughts would likely be no worse than those of the past was a surprise, said Anchukaitis, who led the modeling team. In other semi-arid regions of the world that he has studied such as California and the Mediterranean, global warming has already changed precipitation and temperature patterns and thereby increased the risk of long-term drought.

Mongolia, a landlocked country in central Asia, has long, cold winters and short summers. Much of the country is cold, semi-arid grasslands that resemble eastern Montana.

Lead author Amy Hessl of West Virginia University said, "You would expect, based on everything we've been thinking about and reading as climate scientists, that elevated temperatures are going to lead to more severe droughts in semi-arid regions. But the models did not project increased frequency or severity of droughts."

The timing of the rainy season is the likely cause, the researchers said. Mongolia's rainy season is in the summer, the warmer time of the year, whereas California and the Mediterranean have winter rains and dry summers. As global temperatures increase, continental regions with summer rains may get more precipitation, offsetting the effects on plants of higher temperatures.

The team's research paper, "Past and Future Drought in Mongolia," is scheduled for online publication in Science Advances on March 14. A complete list of the authors is at the bottom of this release. National Geographic and the National Science Foundation funded the research.

Anchukaitis, who also has appointments in geosciences and in the UA Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, is interested in how past and current civilizations dealt with drought and climate variability. This new research is an outgrowth of previous research he, Hessl and their colleagues conducted to figure out how past climate influenced the Mongol civilization.

Anchukaitis and his colleagues used their tree-ring record of past climate in Mongolia to reconstruct what the annual Palmer Drought Severity Index, or PDSI, would have been going back in time 2,060 years. The PDSI combines both temperature and precipitation to get a measure of soil moisture, one measure of how water-stressed a plant would be.

He and his colleagues combined the reconstruction of past annual PDSI measures with a set of climate model simulations called the Community Earth System Model to understand what influenced the Mongolian droughts for the period from 850 to 2100.

The model incorporates information about past solar variability, volcanic eruptions, land use changes and carbon dioxide emissions. For projections to the end of the 21st century, the model uses the future emissions scenario called RCP 8.5, in which the rate of emissions of greenhouse gases continues to increase.

Even with the highest level of greenhouse gas emissions and rising global temperatures, the model simulations indicate that future droughts in Mongolia would be no more severe than those of the past.

"There's a tug of war between trends toward increased rainfall and more evaporative demand because of hotter temperatures. There's uncertainty about which will win this tug of war," Anchukaitis said.

"The simulations say that Mongolia dries between now and about 2050 because of higher temperatures, but then it turns around because of the increase in precipitation," he said.

Many people in Mongolia are nomadic pastoralists. They are particularly affected by the vagaries of weather and climate, because the combination of winter and summer temperatures plus rainfall controls the number of cattle the grassland can support.

"What to me stands out is this deep uncertainty about the future, particularly when you have a society that is so vulnerable to climate variability," he said, adding that uncertainty makes it hard to plan for coping with future climate change.

Anchukaitis said one of his next steps is translating the team's estimates of future soil moisture into estimates of the future productivity of Mongolia's grasslands.

Research Report: "Past and Future Drought in Mongolia,"


Related Links
University of Arizona
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


Thanks for being there;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5+ Billed Monthly


paypal only
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal


CLIMATE SCIENCE
Life under extreme drought conditions
Potsdam, Germany (SPX) Feb 28, 2018
The core region of the Atacama Desert in South America is one of the most arid places on earth. Sometimes it is raining only once in a decade or even less, the annual precipitation is far less than 20 mm. The dry conditions resulted in high salt concentrations in the soil and low organic matter content. However, scientists have found microorganisms there. But it has remained unclear whether these environments support active microbial growth or whether the observed cells were introduced by wind tra ... read more

Comment using your Disqus, Facebook, Google or Twitter login.



Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Astronaut Scott Kelly weighs in on the 'State of Science'

Knowledge matters for Year of Education on Station

NASA, partners seek input on standards for deep space technologies

Goddard licenses gear bearing tech to Bahari Energy for urban wind power

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Ukraine eyes new Spaceport downunder

SpaceX carries out 50th launch of Falcon 9 rocket

Arianespace lofts 4 more O3b sats for SES led constellation

NASA team outfits Orion for abort test with lean approach

CLIMATE SCIENCE
360 Video: Tour a Mars Robot Test Lab

The Case of the Martian Boulder Piles

Opportunity collects more 'Selfie' frames

Dyes for 'live' extremophile labeling will help discover life on Mars

CLIMATE SCIENCE
China moving ahead with plans for next-generation X-ray observatory

China to launch Long March-5B rocket in 2019

Satellite will test plan for global China led satcom network

China plans rocket sea-launch

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Britain hopes to keep stars aligned with EU's space projects

Lockheed Martin Begins Assembly of JCSAT-17 Commercial Communications Satellite

ESA Astronaut will test CIMON aboard the ISS Watson AI

Iridium Certus readies for takeoff with aviation service providers

CLIMATE SCIENCE
ORNL researchers design novel method for energy-efficient deep neural networks

Researchers use 'flying focus' to better control lasers over long distances

Helium ions open whole new world of materials

Technique to see objects hidden around corners

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Study sheds light on the genetic origins of the two sexes

Heat shock system helps bug come back to life after drying up

Rare mineral discovered in plants for first time

Hubble observes exoplanet atmosphere in more detail than ever before

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Jupiter's turmoil more than skin deep: researchers

Jupiter's Jet-Streams Are Unearthly

You are entering the Jovian Twilight Zone

The PI's Perspective: Why Didn't Voyager Explore the Kuiper Belt?









The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.