Analysts say there are some among the Kremlin's political elite attempting to discredit Ivanov's performance as defense minister to damage his credentials.

Constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term as president, Putin will step down in 2008. With no heir apparent officially backed, analysts and pundits have created a veritable cottage industry of intrigue and speculation as to whom the Kremlin will support to succeed Putin.

In the absence of an officially backed candidate, many have suggested one of the only -- if not the only -- high Kremlin official strongly positioned to succeed Putin is Ivanov. Not everyone in the Kremlin is pleased with this prospect.

There are indications the Kremlin political class may be divided on the possibility of an Ivanov presidency. Over the past few weeks, Col.-Gen Alexandr Savenkov, the army's top prosecutor, has repeatedly criticized Ivanov's tenure as defense minister and political analysts believe there is more to Savenkov's public pronouncements than fulfilling official duties or a military man's concern for the armed services.

According to Savenkov, under Ivanov's watch there have repeated failures to confront problems such as crime, corruption and hazing in the military. The army's top prosecutor has also said discipline in the services has eroded to the point of collapse and that while the high command, including Ivanov, admits more needs to done, in fact, very little is happening.

Ivanov has defended himself, claiming Savenkov's comments are exaggerated. Not all the experts on Russia's military agree.

"There probably are cases where the prosecutors could do more, but he (Savenkov) is right -- discipline in the military has long been a tragic joke," said Dale Herspring, a professor of political science at Kansas State University and an expert on the Russian military. "To suggest, as Ivanov has, that problems such as hazing of recruits is getting better is silly.

"Only last week more deserted because of hazing; not surprising given the quality of recruit the military gets and the fact that the recruits are left to discipline and train themselves."

Savenkov's outspokenness comes as Ivanov is speaking out on a wide array of issues, including foreign policy and Russia's international economic priorities. Among the Kremlin political elite, there is no other high official who speaks to media as often and in a way that clearly indicates he is speaking his mind.

The question swirling though the Moscow rumor mill is if Savenkov is intentionally (and with the backing of some Kremlin officials) stealing wind from Ivanov's presidential ambitions. This cannot be discounted.

Ivanov's chances to succeed Putin are strong. His public visibility is high, he is seen to be a strong Putin loyalist to the point of being the president's alter ego, and in an immensely difficult job. Most importantly, in the public eye Ivanov is not deemed to be a politician nor tied to special interests groups.

Ivanov does have popular appeal, but not everyone in the Kremlin would like to see him become president. The security forces that make up Putin's inner circle are divided on many issues, including the pace of economic and structural reform, continued popular criminal prosecution of the oligarchs, and who should succeed Putin.

Those within Putin's inner circle against Ivanov's presidential bid do not have to search hard to find the defense minister's weaknesses. Reforming Russia's military is probably the most thankless job in government.

In as many areas where Ivanov can claim process in reforming the military, his critics can find just as many cases of a military that has yet to recover from the Soviet collapse more than a decade ago.

At the very least, Savenkov's outspoken criticism of Ivanov should be interpreted as the following. First, the Kremlin elite has yet to find consensus on who should succeed Putin.

Second, Ivanov is a strong candidate in the running. Third, if Ivanov -- with Putin's backing -- is intent to become president, his shadowy critics are publicly informing him he first must accommodate competing interests among the Kremlin elite.

Peter Lavelle is United Press International's Moscow correspondent.

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