Teal Mission Model Counts 1,209 Space Payloads

SPACEMART

despite an overall fall in future payload counts, as the last paper projects for LEO constellations crumble away, actual orders for large commercial and military satellites remain strong.

Berlin (SPX) May 12, 2004
The Teal Group announced Tuesday publication of its new Worldwide Mission Model: 2004-2013 at the Berlin Air Show ILA 2004. The study counts a total of 1,209 payloads proposed for launch to Earth orbit during the next 10 years, down 14% from last year's total of 1,410 payloads for 2003-2012.

The Model breaks out the data by more than a dozen fields such as payload, payload type, mass, orbit, prime contractor, customer, country, launch vehicle, and launch site.

It provides a framework from which to make projections about the future of space based on the relatively "hard information" available on a wide range of payloads, including satellites, microgravity experiments capsules, and manned missions. It is a snapshot of what has been proposed for production and launch as of this writing.

"This is the third year in a row that the number of payloads has dropped," says Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Space Systems Briefing, the 1,400-page, monthly-updated competitive intelligence service in which the Model is published (for more information on the service, call 703-573-5374 or fax 703-573-0559).

"We peaked in 2001 when we identified 2,160 payloads proposed for launch during 2001-2010."

About 49% of the payloads are of US origin. Of those, 60% are proposed by the US Government and 37.2% by US commercial ventures. Slightly under 3% are university payloads, mostly nanosatellites or picosatellites.

Some 20.6% of the payloads are European, 13.7% from Asia & Pacific Rim countries, and 9.7% Russian. The remainder are a mix of international payloads or payloads from other regions, including Latin America & Caribbean and Africa & Middle East.

"We've not noticed any great shifts in terms of the countries or regions that are proposing new satellites or missions to space," says Caceres. "What is noticeable is the continuing decline in the number of commercial payloads relative to government payloads."

In 2003, commercial payloads accounted for 45.5% of the total payloads in the Model. This year, that percentage has dropped to 38.4%. Civil and military payloads make up 41.7% and 15.7% of the payloads in the current Model, up from 38.7% and 13.7% respectively last year.

According to Caceres, "There are just not enough new commercial satellites being proposed to make up for all those commercial satellite programs that have died of attrition during the past few years."

The Model identifies more than 100 different prime contractors. The top 20 primes, including Alcatel Space Industries, Boeing Satellite Systems, EADS Astrium, Lockheed Martin Commercial Space Systems, and Northrop Grumman Space Technology, and others account for 52.6% of the total payloads.

Teal Group Corporation is a defense and aerospace consulting firm based in Fairfax, Virginia. The company provides competitive market intelligence to industry and government.

Chart:
(in units) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Proposed
Payloads    349  251  183  105   66  153   55   18   15   14
SOURCE  Teal Group Corporation

SPACEMART

Arianespace: Back In The Black

Paris - May 04, 2004
At the general assembly of Arianespace shareholders, which was held today in Paris, the company's financial results for 2003 were approved. Sales for 2003 were 559 million euros, resulting in a net profit of 9.2 million euros.

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