But now that the dust has settled over the FY2000 budget submissions, it looks like Pentagon space spending will stay flat for the third year in a row - with one exception.

Space-Based Laser (SBL) is the sole new start contained in the U.S. Air Force space accounts- and buys of military boosters are down, too. While some small technology programs got a minor boost, the trend is clear: space programs in the Pentagon have a decidedly black world cast these days.

Translation: look for power to flow more and more towards the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) for space projects, with the Air Force picking up the leftovers - when there are any.

And as far as that SBL is concerned, consider this: the $140 million that the Cohen administration coughed up for the FY200 budget is but a tiny down payment on a prototype flying satellite and space test.

The last time the Air Force described the SBL that they wanted, it would have required orbital assembly and docking, lifted to space from Vandenberg aboard what at the time was a non-existant launcher.

Now that booster will be a heavy-lift version of the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV). Total price of the prototype: $1-$2 billion, plus launch vehicle.

With Air Force plans projecting a launch in 2007, and an operational contellation by 2012, this means that full funding for the prototype, quickly followed by the final design, must start ramping up in the next fiscal year.

That constellation of 12 satellites in high orbit could run the Air Force more than $20 billion by the time the first operational birds fly. And that's not including the grief over whether or not such a constellation would be treaty compliant.

Truth is, this administration hates anything remotely connected to the old Reagan-era Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). So why this sudden romance with a space laser?

Looks more like a bargaining chip to be cashed in for Russian or Chinese compliance with existing treaties and nonproliferation agreements.

There is a major disconnect coming between the White House and the recent record of Chinese intelligence activities, not only with respect to nuclear secrets kept out in the laboratories, but in satellite technology.

With the space industry set to wage a major campaign this spring to lift the recently-imposed ban on launching U.S.-made satellites aboard the Long March family, the administration needs some form of carrot-and-stick offering to keep Bejing happy- at least in theory.

Making noises about a space laser system might be a bureaucrat's idea of a threat- unless one considers that there are no billions to fund this project, and less technology to back it up.

If the White House were serious about military space, it would be funding a wider range of technologies in optics, sensors, and smallsats, not just for NRO's use, but for wider, military applications.

But EELV continues to eat up what little extra funds have come available for defense-related space programs. And then again there is the issue of space lift itself. With the emergence of the commercial EELV as dominant, a policy of who will upgrade the rocket ranges is still needed- and not in sight.

We hear that FAA and Commerce are thrashing out a new Spaceport policy document for review this summer. But that will also take a commitment in the form of new dollars to upgrade the Cape and Vandenberg for the commercial world's needs.

Who should pay? The government-owners or the industry-users? We'll see.

The matter goes beyond GPS range safety to the larger issues of the future of the U.S. Spaceport infrastructure itself. We hear that the Air Force has been listening, not just to COMSTAC but to the industry individually. And the "dialog" has produced some surprises. More on that later here in SpaceDaily.