Images of our north as a vast expanse of snow, cold and ice have been part of the Canadian identity for generations. This excerpt from a poem written by Professor William Gough of the environmental science department at Scarborough both affirms this image -- and mourns its passing.

According to Gough, much of Canada's icy foundation, particularly in the Hudson Bay area, is melting due to the greenhouse gases that we pump into the atmosphere.

Having spent the last six years evaluating the temperature and ice coverage of the bay (using the records of the Canadian Climate Centre from 1900 to 2000), his statistical crystal ball foresees an extremely damaged region in a few short decades. And this bodes ill for another great Canadian symbol -- the polar bear.

This massive area of water, home to thousands of the bears, has traditionally been covered in thick ice from November to June, a time when the hungry giants plod onto the ice floes in search of newly born seal pups. These plump pups allow the bears to store enough energy to make it through the much leaner summer days on land.

"The length of time polar bears are able to spend on the ice is crucial," says Gough, "because the weight they gain during this period determines their survival rates and the number of cubs they'll raise."

But time is fast running out for the polar bear.

"Projections for the bay area reveal that the seasonal cycle of ice will probably disappear by 2040 due to rising temperatures," says Gough. "Once that happens it's curtains for the bears."

Gough picked the bay as his laboratory because it harbours the most southerly polar bear population in the world. This gives them the unfortunate distinction of being the first polar bears anywhere that will be affected by the disappearance of ice.

If ice doesn't form on the bay, the bear's hunting season would be shortened dramatically and they will probably starve as a result, Gough fears.

He views these bears as miners view canaries in a coal mine. If the bears are in danger then so are we. "They're especially susceptible to climatic change so what affects them hurts all animals in the food chain."

With temperatures already rising in the area, there is growing evidence of strange behaviour in the Hudson Bay bears with eyewitness accounts of caribou being stalked and adult seals being attacked on land.

And they're looking at humans as a potential food source too, says Gough. "There has been a dramatic increase in bear and human confrontations over the past few years. Just recently, a woman north of Churchill was devoured and we're seeing more and more bears in garbage dumps close to towns."

Gough and his fellow scientists are constantly fighting the dangerous misconception that climate change will be beneficial to human populations by introducing an era of warmer winters and increased acreage for farmers. An exasperated Gough finds this thinking extremely shortsighted, especially since many human communities around the bay will have to be evacuated due to a lack of frozen permafrost supporting homes and businesses.

"It won't be just bears losing their homes," he warns.

On Nov. 14, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan spoke to 10,000 delegates from around the world at a conference on global warming in The Hague. "The situation for us is enormous," he said. "If we are to bring greenhouse gas emissions down to a sustainable level, we need to make radical changes in the world economy and in the way we live."

Another speaker, Dr. Robert Watson, chair of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, says the surface temperature of the earth is at its highest level in 1,000 years.

When trying to explain the very real dangers of climatic change, Gough often refers to the book Storm Warning by Lydia Dotto. Dotto writes that the whole greenhouse gas issue has been framed as if it were a court case where the scientists must prove their theories beyond a reasonable doubt.

"But this isn't the way we should be looking at things," argues Gough, "because by the time we do have absolute proof it will be too late."

Gough publishes his own findings in the journal Arctic this June but whether or not he is right beyond a reasonable doubt remains to be seen.

"I'll have to wait another 40 years," he says.

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