The Orbital Information Group (OIG) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been monitoring the orbital module and providing regular updates on its expected reentry time.

In its 60-Day Decay Forecast Report issued on July 20, OIG predicted that SZ-2 OM would reenter on Aug. 14. That day came and went without seeing the module's reentry.

Then on Aug. 17 OIG issued another forecast for a reentry date on Aug. 19. Again SZ-2 OM remained in orbit.

Presumably changing atmospheric conditions have affected the rate of decay of the Orbital Module, which appears to be losing altitude slower than expected.

Since August 20 OIG has began issuing a more detailed decay forecast of the Orbital Module. The latest report issued this morning (Aug. 21) forecasts that SZ-2 OM will probably reenter between Aug. 22 and 26, with the most likely reentry time at 8:50 p.m. Beijing Time (1250 UTC) on Aug. 24. The forecast reentry point is 41.0 deg N in latitude and 47.8 deg E in longitude. This places the reentry point over Azerbaijan.

After 257.5 days in space, SZ-2 Orbital Module is in an orbit of 209.5 x 232.4 km inclined at 42.6 deg and a period of 88.9 minutes. The present orbit is almost half as high as the initial orbit of about 400 km since its separation from the Descent Module.

Last month Chinese scientists announced achieving scientific and technological breakthroughs in several experiments that were flown on SZ-2.

The extended mission of the SZ-2 Orbital Module is a demonstration that China is capable of maintaining an orbiting platform for a prolonged period. Such a capability is an important step towards China's eventual goal of establishing its own permanent manned presence in space.

Meanwhile since the initial report of launch preparation of the unmanned SZ-3 mission in the pro-Beijing Hong Kong-based newspaper Wen Wei Po on July 23, there has been no further news on the matter.

In fact three days after the report appeared, Yangtse Evening Post in Nanjing quoted a "senior official from the relevant department" as saying that there was no plan to launch SZ-3 in the near future.

The unidentified official also denied Wen Wei Po's report that if the next few unmanned test missions would go smoothly, China would launch its yuhangyuans ("astronauts") next year.

"The most critical aspect of the manned spacecraft is a high degree of reliability. In an event of an accident, the safety of yuhangyuans must be guaranteed. Therefore it is not simply after several tests that the manned spacecraft can carry yuhangyuans into space," said the official.

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