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NUKEWARS
US sanctions go after Iran's currency, auto sector
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) June 3, 2013


Iran nuclear impasse to dominate IAEA meeting
Vienna (AFP) June 03, 2013 - Iran's defiant expansion of its nuclear programme and 10 failed meetings with the IAEA will dominate a gathering of the UN body's board starting Monday, diplomats and analysts said.

The 35 nations that make up the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency's rotating board of governors were expected to refrain however from passing a resolution condemning the Islamic republic.

The IAEA's latest quarterly report, circulated on May 22, showed that despite numerous IAEA board and UN Security Council resolutions calling for a suspension, Tehran has continued to expand its nuclear activities.

In particular, and in spite of sanctions aimed at preventing such advances, Iran has boosted its capacity to enrich uranium, which in its highly purified form can be used in a nuclear weapon. Iran says it needs the material for power generation and medical isotopes.

The IAEA report showed that Iran has also converted a portion of its medium-enriched uranium into another form in order to make reactor fuel, which is difficult -- but not impossible -- to convert back.

But analysts say the rate of conversion is too low to prevent Iran's uranium stockpile from growing, that its output could triple once new machinery is up and running, and that Tehran is producing more than it currently needs.

This conversion of 20 percent enriched uranium "is a ray of light, but there are still some pretty dark clouds around," Shannon Kile, nuclear expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), told AFP.

One such source of additional worry is Iran's progress, also outlined in the latest IAEA report, in building a new reactor at Arak which could in theory provide Iran with plutonium, if the reactor's fuel is further processed.

Plutonium is an alternative to highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. North Korea used plutonium in two tests in 2006 and 2009, while a uranium bomb was dropped by the US on Hiroshima, Japan, in 1945.

Arak "shows that this issue is not just about 20 percent enriched uranium stockpiles. This is a broader picture," said one senior Western diplomat in Vienna.

Another bone of contention meanwhile is what the IAEA suspects may have been Iranian research, mostly before 2003 but possibly ongoing, into creating a nuclear payload for a missile, including at the Parchin military base near the capital.

Iran denies this, and 10 meetings, the latest on May 15, with the IAEA since its major November 2011 report summarising these claims -- based mostly, but not only, on foreign intelligence -- have failed to make progress.

Wendy Shermann, the US representative in six-power talks with Iran, currently on hold until after elections on June 14, told the Senate Foreign Relations committee in May that "at some point" the IAEA would have to refer the issue to the UN Security Council.

But the IAEA's board, at this regular meeting at least, is expected to refrain from upping the ante, in part because of the Iranian elections, with the P5+1 powers -- the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany -- preferring to keep their powder dry for now.

"If I interpret the tea leaves correctly from the P5+1, the powers will essentially be prepared to kick the can down the road, at least for another few months," Mark Hibbs, analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told AFP.

The United States unveiled aggressive new sanctions against Iran Monday, directly targeting the rial currency and the key auto sector, days before presidential elections in the Islamic Republic.

The new measures, which could spark more economic deprivation inside Iran, were accompanied by warnings of additional "powerful" and "painful" measures if Tehran refuses concessions in inconclusive talks on its nuclear program.

President Barack Obama signed an executive order authorizing sanctions on foreign banks and financial institutions that make transactions in the rial currency or keep accounts denominated in the rial outside the country.

The ninth set of sanctions signed by Obama against Iran will also penalize anyone involved in the significant sale of goods and services to Iran's auto industry -- a move that could hit foreign car giants in Europe and Asia.

"The steps taken today are part of President Obama's commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, by raising the cost of Iran's defiance of the international community," White House spokesman Jay Carney said.

Another official said the strategy represented a significant escalation of the sanctions as, for the first time, Washington was attacking the rial, which has lost two-thirds of its value over the last two years.

"This promises to make Iran's weak currency, even weaker and more volatile," the official said. "The idea here is to make the rial essentially unusable outside of Iran."

Analysts said the new move by Obama was a sign that the administration was wedded to a strategy of ever increasing economic pressure on Iran as the showdown over its nuclear program hits a critical point.

"It's a serious escalation of sanctions because the administration is blacklisting the auto sector which is the second largest employer in Iran after the energy sector," said Mark Dubowitz, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Dubowitz also said that the move against the auto sector was a sign the administration was concerned it could be used to procure "dual use" technologies such as parts for centrifuges used to enrich uranium.

The announcement of new sanctions came as the campaign gathers pace ahead of elections on June 14 to succeed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

While the campaign has featured debate on the economic pain exerted by US and international sanctions, the poll is unlikely to alter Iranian nuclear policy, which is controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The United States has warned that it will not rule out taking military action against Iran over its nuclear program and that time is running out for diplomacy to succeed.

Talks between Iran and the five members of the UN Security Council plus Germany are on hold pending the election.

Iran denies that its nuclear enrichment activities are intended to produce a nuclear bomb and says the program is purely intended for power generation.

"Iran must promptly address the international community's concerns or it will face ever more powerful sanctions, ever more painful economic hardship and ever increasing isolation," an official said on condition of anonymity.

Obama's new executive order allows the Treasury to blacklist from the US financial system any institution that handles significant transactions or accounts in the rial outside Iran.

Additionally, the White House said, it was "taking aim at a major revenue generator for Iran" by authorizing the Treasury to blacklist anyone involved in the sale, supply, or transfer to Iran of significant goods or services for the manufacture or assembly of cars, trucks, motorcycles or other vehicles.

"Even as we intensify our pressure on the Iranian government, we hold the door open to a diplomatic solution that allows Iran to rejoin the community of nations if they meet their obligations," Carney said.

"However, Iran must understand that time is not unlimited."

"If the Iranian government continues down its current path, there should be no doubt that the United States and our partners will continue to impose increasing consequences."

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