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 By Shaun TANDON Washington (AFP) May 9, 2019
One year after President Donald Trump bolted from the Iran nuclear deal, the United States is ratcheting up pressure on Tehran nearly by the day, from expanding sanctions to deploying B-52 bombers. But even if the US campaign has succeeded in causing economic suffering in Iran, the broader objectives remain vague, with no clear end-game on how to wind down tensions that have raised fears of war. Iran -- which for the past year has made a point of steadfastly complying with the multinational nuclear accord negotiated under then president Barack Obama -- on Wednesday's anniversary said it would stop observing some limits set by the deal. Voicing frustration, President Hassan Rouhani appealed to European powers -- which still back the agreement -- to do more to allow trade so Iran feels the benefits of the agreement. The Trump administration has relentlessly pursued a campaign of "maximum pressure," on Wednesday vowing to stop all of Iran's steel and mineral exports -- after already threatening to punish any country that buys its top product, oil. In recent days the United States has also announced the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group and the nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to the region, warning of a response to what it charges is an "imminent" threat from Iran. Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat, called Trump's policy an "unmitigated disaster" that has goaded Iran into resuming a nuclear program that it had stopped. "Trump's Iran strategy is blind escalation. There is no end-game. No overriding strategy. No way out," Murphy tweeted. "It's just escalation for the sake of escalation. That's wildly dangerous and inexcusably dumb, in that order," he said. - 'Method to the madness'?- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the pressure campaign has achieved "significant successes" and has repeatedly pointed to financial woes of Hezbollah, the militantly anti-Israel Lebanese movement backed by Iran. Pompeo in May 2018 laid out 12 demands that virtually no Iran watchers believe the clerical regime will meet, including a complete scaling back of its regional role and support of Shiite militias, who often clash with US allies Saudi Arabia and Israel. Suzanne Maloney, deputy director for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, played down the risks of war, saying that the Trump administration understood the dangers of a full-fledged conflict with Iran. "What the administration does want is for Iran to be under maximum pressure for a sustained period of time in order to minimize or even reverse its advantages across the region," Maloney said. She said that US officials believed from past experience that Iran "doesn't bend under a small amount of pressure" but could change if faced with severe threats. "I think there is a method to the madness," she said. But she doubted Iran would bow to demands to withdraw itself from the region. "I don't think they will pull back because if they did, the administration would read that as a signal that its approach is working and it would only double-down," she said. - Nuclear deal withers - Some experts believe that the United States may in fact welcome an unraveling of the nuclear accord, which would no longer give Iran the moral high ground of complying with it. "If the administration is willing to take the risk of the nuclear deal completely collapsing, then their policies to date are moving us in that direction," said Dalia Dassa Kaye, director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the Rand Corporation. An Iranian withdrawal would help the administration build support for a more confrontational approach, she said. "The question is still, to what end?" she said. "Some may hope for a regime collapse, but the Europeans -- and certainly not the Russians or Chinese -- will not support that objective," she said, adding that there remained "a lot of confusion" over US objectives. Trump, who threatened to destroy North Korea before meeting its leader Kim Jong Un in two landmark summits, on Wednesday said that he hoped "someday" to negotiate face-to-face with Iran's leaders. But few see a willingness to meet the hawkish president from Iran's leaders, for whom hostility toward the United States is a bedrock principle of the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the pro-Western shah. Instead, Iranian officials may be waiting for next year to see if Trump is re-elected, with the Democrats seeking to unseat him broadly supporting the nuclear accord. But Quentin Lopinot, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said an expected showdown could come much sooner. "The question is the breaking point. When will the Iranians stop sticking to a point-by-point response?" he said. In Iran's announcement, it gave European powers 60 days to fulfill commitments on sanctions relief -- a hard sell for European businesses that fear punishment in the United States. "Until now the Iranians seemed to want to buy time, but this ultimatum risks bringing forward an escalation," Lopinot said.
Iran nuclear deal: from US exit to Iran relief ultimatum The administration of President Donald Trump accused Tehran of "destablising activities" across the region and vowed to exert "maximum pressure" through renewed sanctions to bring them to an end. Here are key developments in the bitter standoff. - US quits - On May 8, 2018, President Donald Trump announces the US withdrawal from the 2015 pact, saying "we cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement." The move heralds the reinstatement of US sanctions, in two phases. The US warns other countries to end trade and investment in Iran and to stop buying its oil or face punitive measures. But US allies Britain, France, Germany -- who were also parties to the deal alongside Russia and China -- insist Iran has abided by its commitments and say they are determined to save the agreement. President Hassan Rouhani says Iran would be within its rights to scrap the curbs it agreed in the deal. But he calls on the remaining parties to save it. - Support for Iran - Washington warns on May 21 that Tehran will be hit with the "strongest sanctions in history" unless it concedes to further demands over its missile programme and ends its "destabilising activities". A top US official says on July 2 that Washington is determined to force Iran to change its policies by slashing its oil export revenues. On July 6, Tehran's five remaining partners in the accord vow to back "the continuation of Iran's exports of oil and gas". - War of words - On July 22, Rouhani warns the US that any conflict with Iran would be the "mother of all wars". Trump tweets that he should stop making threats "OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES". - Sanctions, again - On August 7, Washington reimposes a first set of sanctions that target Iran's access to US banknotes and key industries, including cars and carpets. Within hours, German carmaker Daimler says it is halting its activities in Iran. French energy giant Total and other major firms follow suit. On November 5, the United States reimposes a second package of sanctions aimed at significantly reducing Iran's oil exports and cutting it off from international finance. At the end of January 2019, Britain, France and Germany launch a trade mechanism known as INSTEX in a bid to allow Tehran to keep trading with EU companies bypassing US sanctions. - 'Terrorism' - On March 7, Washington calls for international measures against Iran over three launches it says are related to its missile programme. On April 2, London, Paris and Berlin call for a UN report on Iran's missile activity. On April 8, the United States designates Iran's parallel military, the Revolutionary Guard, a "foreign terrorist organisation". Tehran immediately declares Washington a "state sponsor of terrorism" and blacklists its forces in the region as "terrorist groups". - US military deployment - On May 5, US national security adviser John Bolton says Washington is sending an aircraft carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Middle East in a "clear and unmistakable" message to Iran. Two days later, the Pentagon deploys B-52 bombers to the Gulf. - Iran ripostes - On May 8, Iran says it has decided to suspend commitments it made under the deal, some immediately and some after 60 days if no progress is made on sanctions relief. They include restrictions on the level to which Iran can enrich uranium and modifications to Iran's Arak heavy water reactor that were designed to prevent the production of plutonium as a byproduct.
Iran to end curbs on uranium enrichment stockpile Tehran (AFP) May 8, 2019 Iran said Wednesday it will stop respecting limits on its nuclear activities agreed under a landmark 2015 deal unless other powers help Tehran bypass renewed US sanctions, amid rising tensions with Washington. The move was part of a package of measures announced by Iran in response to the sweeping unilateral sanctions reimposed by Washington in the 12 months since it quit the agreement, which have had a severe effect on the Iranian economy. They came as Washington stepped up its war of words aga ... read more
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