CONTOUR exploded during its solar-orbit injection maneuver at a time when it was out of radio contact with Earth, so that the precise cause will never be known. But a Feb. 12 article in the Associated Press (reprinted in the Baltimore Sun) quoted Theron Bradley, Jr. -- the head of the CONTOUR failure investigation board -- as saying that the board will report that the "leading candidate" for the cause was a genuine design flaw in the spacecraft, rather than a random flaw in its STAR solid kick motor provided by Morton Thiokol.

According to this article, 'Bradley said that the heat given off by the STAR motor during its burn very likely caused overheating of some unspecified component in CONTOUR (probably the hydrazine tank for its liquid-fuel maneuvering thrusters) because APL had erroneously designed the STAR motor to be nestled completely inside its body rather than fastening it to the spacecraft's rear, and had then failed to adequately check whether the motor would dangerously heat the spacecraft's systems during its firing.

This would have no direct bearing on New Horizons' design, since its solid kick motor is completely outside the spacecraft's body and will be separated after firing. But, if true, it would indicate that APL got seriously sloppy during the design and testing of CONTOUR.

However, Stamatios Krimigis -- the head of APL's Space Department -- tells this reporter that Bradley actually told the AP and Sun reporters that they had misquoted him, and that he actually only described such a thermal design flaw in the CONTOUR spacecraft as one of several possible causes that are still under study by the board.

Krimigis also quotes NASA as saying that the final report from the CONTOUR failure board will be released in mid-April -- and he expresses confidence that its conclusions will agree with those of APL's internal investigation, completed last October.

While Krimigis is unwilling to reveal that investigation's conclusions yet, the implication would seem to be that APL itself has concluded that its spacecraft design was not at fault.

If the NASA failure review board's final verdict is severe enough, it cannot quite be ruled out that NASA and Congress might change their minds about letting APL design the more expensive Pluto probe -- particularly since its power source contains plutonium. At this late point, however, this is very unlikely.

NASA, Congress and the White House have all finally agreed that they do want an early Pluto probe -- and while the CONTOUR failure report does mean that they will probably keep a somewhat closer eye on APL than planned, the lab has already succeeded spectacularly with its first Solar System probe (the "NEAR" asteroid orbiter) and is still on schedule to launch its "MESSENGER" Mercury orbiter (a mission actually considerably more complex than the Pluto probe) in March 2004.

Indeed, the fact that the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and its new rival APL have now both suffered embarrassing recent failures in their planetary probes will probably rouse both institutions to take greater pains to avoid sloppy management of their projects -- exactly as such competition is supposed to do.

So the Pluto probe, which seemed doomed a year ago to a long delay that would seriously reduce its science return, now seems a near-certainty for a near-future launch despite long-time furious opposition from both NASA Headquarters and the White House -- making it one of the more remarkable scientific phoenixes of our time.

Click for Part One: The Kuipers Beckon

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OUTER PLANETS

The Kuipers Beckon As Pluto Mission Funded
Sacramento - Mar 03, 2003
After years of uncertainty, the strange "Pluto War" over whether to launch a Pluto flyby spacecraft in the near future is finally almost completely over -- and Pluto won.