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NUKEWARS
Still chance for diplomacy with Iran: US officials
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Feb 1, 2012


US lawmakers push for more Iran sanctions
Washington (AFP) Jan 31, 2012 - For the second straight day, US lawmakers on Tuesday unveiled proposals for tighter sanctions on Iran, seeking leverage to force the Islamic republic to freeze its suspect nuclear program.

House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Howard Berman and Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Robert Menendez, both Democrats, called for targeting Tehran's energy sector and elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

"With Iran pursuing a menacing nuclear program while thumbing its nose at the international community, Tehran must be further isolated," Berman said in a statement. "Iran leaves us no choice."

"It is clear that Iran has not deviated from its course nor abated its efforts to achieve nuclear weapons capability," said Menendez, who called the new proposal a way to counter Iranian "workarounds" to thwart earlier sanctions.

The Berman-Menendez proposal aims to punish non-US financial institutions that facilitate financial transactions by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) or National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) if the US government finds those two entities to be tied to the IRGC.

The plan also includes a measure designed to overcome worries from US President Barack Obama's administration that drastic reductions in supplies of Iranian oil will drive up the price of crude -- a potential windfall for Tehran.

The blueprint states that the sanctions will only be triggered if the president determines that there is a sufficient supply of petroleum and related products from countries other than Iran.

Berman introduced the legislation in the House of Representatives, while Menendez was to offer it as an amendment to a tough new sanctions bill the Senate Banking Committee was expected to approve on Thursday.

Sanctions and diplomacy may yet persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program, as its leaders have shown a rational "cost-benefit approach" in their calculations, senior US officials said.

The top intelligence officials suggested Tuesday that military conflict with Iran was not inevitable, despite soaring tensions with Tehran and a war of nerves over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key oil trade choke point.

"We judge Iran's nuclear decision-making is guided by a cost-benefit approach, which offers the international community opportunities to influence Tehran," Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

"Iranian leaders undoubtedly consider Iran's security, prestige, and influence, as well as the international political and security environment, when making decisions about its nuclear program," he said.

He said economic sanctions were taking a toll and described a worsening rift between Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The overriding goal of Iran's leaders remained "regime survival," and it was too early to say how economic strains triggered by tougher sanctions would affect their decisions, CIA Director David Petraeus told the same hearing.

With a run on the Iranian currency, inflationary pressures and unemployment, the sanctions were "biting" more now than ever before, Petraeus said.

"I think what we have to see now is how does that play out. What is the level of popular discontent inside Iran? Does that influence the strategic decision-making of the supreme leader and the regime?" he said.

The comments by senior intelligence officials echoed President Barack Obama's assessment in his State of the Union address last week, when he said "a peaceful resolution" remains possible with Iran.

The head of the intelligence committee, Senator Dianne Feinstein, meanwhile revealed that Israel's spy chief Tamir Pardo had visited Washington last week, amid speculation over a possible Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Such trips are usually secret, but Feinstein mentioned Pardo's visit at the televised hearing as she discussed how Israel views Iran's nuclear ambitions.

When asked by Feinstein about the likelihood of preemptive Israeli military action, Clapper replied that he would prefer to answer in a closed-door session but said sanctions might force Tehran to change course.

"Our hope is that the sanctions... will have the effect of inducing a change in Iranian policy toward their apparent pursuit of a nuclear capability," he said.

"Obviously, this is a very sensitive issue right now."

The United States and the European Union have ramped up sanctions on Iran following a damning UN International Atomic Energy Agency report in November.

The measures focus on Iran's vital oil industry and central bank in a bid to force Tehran to curtail its uranium enrichment program, which the West suspects is part of a secret drive to build an atomic bomb.

Iran insists its nuclear project is peaceful and has threatened retaliation over the fresh sanctions, including possibly disrupting shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, told senators Iran had "the capability, we assess, to temporarily close" the channel, but he did not elaborate.

The US intelligence chiefs made clear their view of Iran's nuclear program had not changed since an assessment last year by all 16 spy agencies that concluded Iran's leaders are divided over whether to build nuclear weapons and have yet to take a decision to press ahead.

Asked what would be a signal that Iran had decided to build a bomb, Clapper suggested that highly enriched weapons-grade uranium would be one clear sign.

With protests and unrest sweeping Syria, Petraeus said Iran was worried about its ally and was working to prop up the embattled regime.

The fall of President Bashar al-Assad would deliver a major blow to Tehran, which relies on Syria as a logistics link to Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, said the CIA director.

"Clearly, the loss of Syria as a logistics platform, a line of communication into Lebanon to support Hezbollah, would be a substantial setback for Iran in its effort to use Hezbollah as a proxy," he said.

"That's indeed why the (Iranian) Revolutionary Guard is so engaged in trying to prop up Bashar al-Assad right now."

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