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NUKEWARS
Report undermines US Iran sanctions push
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Feb 18, 2014


Iran 'greatly concerned' by US sanctions talk: Zarif
Vienna (AFP) Feb 18, 2014 - Talk of new US sanctions in recent months has created "a great deal of concern" in Iran on whether Washington is serious about a nuclear deal, Iran's foreign minister said Tuesday.

"Unfortunately what we have seen in the last two months has not encouraged us to believe that everything is in order," said Mohammad Javad Zarif, speaking from Vienna on the first day of nuclear talks.

"I can understand the politics... in the United States... but from the general perspective of the Iranian populace what has happened in the last two months has been less than encouraging," he said.

Certain statements "have created a great deal of concern in Iran on whether the US is serious about wanting to reach an agreement".

He added: "But nevertheless, these statements aside, it is really possible to make an agreement because of a single overriding fact, and that is that we have no other option.

"If we want to resolve this issue the only way is through negotiations," he said, speaking from Vienna in a webcast discussion organised by Denver University's Center for Middle East Studies.

US President Barack Obama has had to fight hard to stop sceptical members of Congress, including some from his own party, from passing additional sanctions on the Islamic republic.

Such a move would contravene the terms of an interim nuclear deal struck in November by Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany under which Tehran scaled back its nuclear activities for six months.

Talks began in Vienna on Tuesday between Iran and the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany on translating this deal into a lasting accord.

Zarif said that the talks "started on the right track" on Tuesday, saying he hoped to reach a deal before the six-month deadline -- which can be extended -- on July 20.

"We have a shared objective, and that is for Iran to have a nuclear programme that is exclusively peaceful," he said.

He said a deal was "totally achievable" but would take more than "one or two sittings".

"I hope by July we can finalise this deal and move it in the right direction of implementing it," Zarif said, adding that getting an accord will take "some innovation and some forward thinking".

The talks in Vienna were due to resume on Wednesday.

A new non-partisan report by top foreign policy experts largely backs White House warnings that imposing new sanctions on Iran could seriously complicate, if not derail, hopes of a final nuclear deal with Tehran.

The study by the Iran Project assesses claims by critics of the sanctions push in Congress that it would fracture the international coalition pursuing talks -- which resumed in Austria on Tuesday -- and a sanctions regime already squeezing Iran's economy.

But it also argues that the Obama administration has been a little too adamant that the bill, if passed, would inevitably lead to war with the Islamic Republic.

The White House, has for now, succeeded in thwarting a bid by a bi-partisan group of hawkish senators to pass new sanctions on Iran which they say will increase US leverage in nuclear talks.

Supporters of the legislation, including the Democratic leader of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Robert Menendez, say that any new sanctions would only come into force in a "trigger" mechanism in six months if talks on a permanent nuclear deal fail.

But the Iran Group report casts doubt on that claim, an important point because Washington promised not to impose new sanctions in an interim deal with Iran reached late last year.

"After carefully reading the bill line by line and consulting with both current and retired Senate staff of the relevant committees, it appears that the critics are correct: the change in sanctions law takes effect upon passage," the report said.

The report questions the claim by pro-sanctions supporters that since economic pain brought Iran to the table, more punishment will get it to capitulate in negotiations.

"Medicine administered at a certain dosage can improve the health of a patient, but if that patient turns around and doubles it, they might poison themselves."

The report also supports the contention that imposing new sanctions in Washington could undermine President Hassan Rouhani among ultra hard liners in Tehran.

It gives some credence to the idea that US allies would see the imposition of new sanctions by Congress as a failure by Washington to live up to its promises.

But the administration got little support for its claims that the sanctions bill could put the United States on a "march to war" with Iran, by killing off chances of a diplomatic solution.

"It would seem that both sides are too confident in their claims that a new sanctions bill will lead directly to war or that the Iranians will never walk away," the report said.

Still, it concluded that the new sanctions bill could increase the probability of war with Iran even if it did not guarantee such an outcome.

The report was written by Jim Walsh, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and included contributions from foreign policy experts including career diplomat Thomas Pickering, former senior CIA officer Paul Pillar, and Jessica Tuchman Matthews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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