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NUKEWARS
Ray of light, dark clouds in Iran nuclear programme
by Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) May 30, 2013


Iran nuclear impasse to dominate IAEA board meeting
Vienna (AFP) June 01, 2013 - Iran's defiant expansion of its nuclear programme and 10 failed meetings with the IAEA will dominate a gathering of the UN body's board starting Monday, diplomats and analysts said.

The 35 nations that make up the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency's rotating board of governors were expected to refrain however from passing a resolution condemning the Islamic republic.

The IAEA's latest quarterly report, circulated on May 22, showed that despite numerous IAEA board and UN Security Council resolutions calling for a suspension, Tehran has continued to expand its nuclear activities.

In particular, and in spite of sanctions aimed at preventing such advances, it has boosted its capacity to enrich uranium, which in its highly purified form can be used in a nuclear weapon. Iran says it needs the material for power generation and medical isotopes.

Iran has also converted a portion of its medium-enriched uranium into another form in order to make reactor fuel, the IAEA report showed, which is difficult -- but not impossible -- to convert back.

But analysts say the rate of conversion is too low to prevent Iran's uranium stockpile from growing, that its output could triple once new machinery is up an running and that Tehran is producing more than it currently needs.

This conversion of 20-percent enriched uranium "is a ray of light but there are still some pretty dark clouds around," Shannon Kile, nuclear expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), told AFP.

One such source of additional worry is Iran's progress, also outlined in the latest IAEA report, in building a new reactor at Arak which could in theory provide Iran with plutonium, if the fuel is further processed.

Plutonium is an alternative to highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. North Korea used plutonium in two tests in 2006 and 2009, while a uranium bomb was dropped by the US on Hiroshima, Japan in 1945.

Arak "shows that this issue is not just about 20-percent enriched uranium stockpiles. This is a broader picture," said one senior Western diplomat in Vienna.

Another bone of contention meanwhile is what the IAEA suspects may have been Iranian research, mostly before 2003 but possibly ongoing, into creating a nuclear payload for a missile, including at the Parchin military base near the capital.

Iran denies this, and 10 meetings, the latest on May 15, with the IAEA since its major November 2011 report summarising these claims -- based mostly, but not only, on foreign intelligence -- have failed to make progress.

Wendy Shermann, the US representative in six-power talks with Iran, currently on hold until after elections on June 14, told the Senate Foreign Relations committee this month that "at some point", the IAEA would have refer the issue to the UN Security Council.

But the IAEA's board, at this meeting at least, is expected to refrain from upping the ante, in part because of the Iranian elections, with the P5+1 powers -- the US, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany -- preferring to keep their powder dry for now.

"If I interpret the tea leaves correctly from the P5+1, the powers will essentially be prepared to kick the can down the road, at least for another few months," Mark Hibbs, analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told AFP.

An important recent development in Iran's nuclear programme, if it continues, might help to ease international fears that Tehran wants the bomb, but serious questions still remain, analysts and diplomats said.

This potentially positive step, as highlighted in recent quarterly reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency, concerns uranium enriched by Iran to a fissile purity of 20 percent.

This material is of major international concern because if further purified to 90 percent -- a process well within Iran's technical capabilities -- it would be suitable for a bomb.

According to the IAEA's most recent report last week, Iran has produced 324 kilogrammes (714 pounds) of 20-percent enriched uranium, well above the around 240 kilogrammes thought to be needed for one nuclear device -- which is reportedly also Israel's "red line".

But more than 40 percent of this has been converted into another form, triuranium octoxide, which experts say is tricky -- although not impossible -- to convert back to the original uranium hexafluoride.

Iran says that it is converting this uranium in order to provide fuel for a reactor in Tehran, and four others that outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad last February ordered constructed, for nuclear medicines.

Tehran also calls it a "confidence-building" measure in so-far fruitless talks with six world powers on hold until after Iranian presidential elections on June 14.

But the problem, says Mark Hibbs, analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is that Iran's output is "way beyond" what it needs. Plans for four more reactors are also "pie in the sky," he told AFP.

At the same time, the rate at which Iran is converting the 20-percent enriched uranium remains below the production rate -- meaning that the size of the overall stockpile continues to creep ever higher.

Moreover, Iran's output of 20-percent enriched uranium is set to triple once new machinery at its Fordo enrichment facility is up and running.

Iran is also putting in more modern enrichment machines at its Natanz plant, used to enrich uranium to five-percent purities for nuclear power, which will enable Tehran to process fissile material more quickly.

As the IAEA cannot vouch for Iran's activities being peaceful, its 35-nation board of governors, which meets in Vienna from Monday, has passed several resolutions calling on Tehran to suspend all enrichment, as has the UN Security Council.

Iran refuses, calling the UN resolutions -- and related UN and Western sanctions, which last year began to cause it economic problems -- illegal and the IAEA, which derives some 65 percent of its budget from Washington and its allies, "politicised".

-- Plutonium --

But even if Iran manages to soothe some of the concerns about uranium, there are also other areas of worry.

Not least of these is progress, as outlined in the last IAEA report, in building the new IR-40 reactor at Arak, which Western countries fear could provide Iran with plutonium, an alternative to uranium for a weapon, if the fuel is reprocessed.

"Everyone is always focusing on the uranium enrichment, and for understandable reasons, but there is this second pathway," said Shannon Kile, nuclear expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

"The IR-40 is of the general type that was used by the North Koreans, the Indians and the Pakistanis in their initial programmes, so it is well suited to producing plutonium for weapons purposes," Kile told AFP.

Arak "shows that this issue is not just about 20-percent enriched uranium stockpiles. This is a broader picture," agreed one senior Western diplomat in Vienna.

Another bone of contention meanwhile is what the IAEA suspects may have been Iranian research, mostly before 2003 but possibly ongoing, into creating a nuclear payload for a missile.

Iran denies this, and 10 meetings with the IAEA since its major November 2011 report summarising these claims -- based mostly, but not only, on foreign intelligence -- have failed to make progress.

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