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NUKEWARS
Outside View: Political 'surgery' on the eve of Iranian elections
by Firouz Mahvi
Luxembourg (UPI) May 30, 2013


Iran nuclear impasse to dominate IAEA board meeting
Vienna (AFP) June 01, 2013 - Iran's defiant expansion of its nuclear programme and 10 failed meetings with the IAEA will dominate a gathering of the UN body's board starting Monday, diplomats and analysts said.

The 35 nations that make up the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency's rotating board of governors were expected to refrain however from passing a resolution condemning the Islamic republic.

The IAEA's latest quarterly report, circulated on May 22, showed that despite numerous IAEA board and UN Security Council resolutions calling for a suspension, Tehran has continued to expand its nuclear activities.

In particular, and in spite of sanctions aimed at preventing such advances, it has boosted its capacity to enrich uranium, which in its highly purified form can be used in a nuclear weapon. Iran says it needs the material for power generation and medical isotopes.

Iran has also converted a portion of its medium-enriched uranium into another form in order to make reactor fuel, the IAEA report showed, which is difficult -- but not impossible -- to convert back.

But analysts say the rate of conversion is too low to prevent Iran's uranium stockpile from growing, that its output could triple once new machinery is up an running and that Tehran is producing more than it currently needs.

This conversion of 20-percent enriched uranium "is a ray of light but there are still some pretty dark clouds around," Shannon Kile, nuclear expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), told AFP.

One such source of additional worry is Iran's progress, also outlined in the latest IAEA report, in building a new reactor at Arak which could in theory provide Iran with plutonium, if the fuel is further processed.

Plutonium is an alternative to highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. North Korea used plutonium in two tests in 2006 and 2009, while a uranium bomb was dropped by the US on Hiroshima, Japan in 1945.

Arak "shows that this issue is not just about 20-percent enriched uranium stockpiles. This is a broader picture," said one senior Western diplomat in Vienna.

Another bone of contention meanwhile is what the IAEA suspects may have been Iranian research, mostly before 2003 but possibly ongoing, into creating a nuclear payload for a missile, including at the Parchin military base near the capital.

Iran denies this, and 10 meetings, the latest on May 15, with the IAEA since its major November 2011 report summarising these claims -- based mostly, but not only, on foreign intelligence -- have failed to make progress.

Wendy Shermann, the US representative in six-power talks with Iran, currently on hold until after elections on June 14, told the Senate Foreign Relations committee this month that "at some point", the IAEA would have refer the issue to the UN Security Council.

But the IAEA's board, at this meeting at least, is expected to refrain from upping the ante, in part because of the Iranian elections, with the P5+1 powers -- the US, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany -- preferring to keep their powder dry for now.

"If I interpret the tea leaves correctly from the P5+1, the powers will essentially be prepared to kick the can down the road, at least for another few months," Mark Hibbs, analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told AFP.

The Iranian resistance is set to reiterate its demands for democratic change and a non-nuclear Iran in an upcoming grand gathering in Paris on June 22. The event will echo the Iranian people's slogan seen in graffiti and signs throughout Iran stating "my vote is for the overthrow" of the regime. This will coincide with Iran's presidential election masquerade.

The internal divisions and infighting within the ruling circles of the Iranian regime has reached unprecedented levels just weeks before the upcoming presidential election.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has moved against political rivals Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, disqualifying them from standing in the upcoming elections.

The move represents a decisive split in the ruling establishment of the regime and heightens tensions between rival camps, leaving the potential for volatile consequences in the wake of this purge. Regardless of the outcome of the elections, this move represents an undeniable blow the power base of the regime and an encouraging sign for those fighting to overthrow the ruling theocracy.

Jacques Mallet du Pan once famously stated, "The Revolution devours its children," but in this case Rafsanjani, who was famously nicknamed "the pillar of the system" and once revered as a stalwart of the founder of this regime, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, and a key player in securing Khamenei's position as supreme leader, now finds himself being pushed out of the regime he helped create.

Rafsanjani was appointed chairman of the Expediency Council by Khamenei himself, and as a member of the Assembly of Experts has a direct say as to fitness of the supreme leader, yet the regime has reached a point in which it is unable to respect its own structures and power sharing arrangements.

Historically, the ruling establishment within the regime has been able to settle internal disputes rather quietly among its key players. The fact that Khamenei has been unable to prevent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's camp from putting forth Mashaei as a candidate, despite the fact that Ahmadinejad's entire political career was formulated by Khamenei, shows just how weakened the supreme leader has become.

As a result of this desperate state, Khamenei was forced to disqualify both Rafsanjani and Mashaei, through the Council of Guardians, creating an embarrassing public spectacle and delegitimizing the regime as a whole.

The reality is that the regime's rank and file are no longer a homogeneous entity and since the discord and chaos of the 2009 elections, many of them have lost faith in Khamenei's judgment as the unquestioned leader of Iran.

Faced with the current dilemma, Khamenei was forced to "pick his poison" in deciding whether to share power with Rafsanjani and thus accept growing opposition within the regime and risk being seen as weak, or making a surgery and purge and risking the threat of radicalizing the opposition. Both present very serious challenges to his survival. The showdown may amount to political suicide for him, but more importantly may mark the beginning of the disintegration of the Iranian regime as a whole.

Similar infighting in 2009 resulted in candidates openly exposing each other's crimes, and harshly condemning the past and present failures of the leadership, a spectacle which opened a crucial window in which 30 years of grievances were aired by the public. The split in the leadership was utilized by the populations to voice their discontent with the regime as a whole, with the chants of "down with the supreme leader" becoming a rallying cry.

The once sacred post of the supreme leader has yet to recover from the de-legitimization of 2009, and Khamenei has continued to lose confidence by those desperate to keep the regime alive.

The present situation has once again validated the opinion of the people that elections in Iran are a meaningless farce, and that the overthrow of the regime remains the only viable alternative.

The most organized Iranian opposition movement, i.e. the National Council of Resistance of Iran under the leadership of Maryam Rajavi and the People's Mujahedin of Iran, have always emphasized on a regime change.

The wishful thinking of Western governments and their failed policy of engagement with the mullahs with a hope of moderation have only extended the life of this regime.

The PMOI resistance, which for years has highlighted the regime's incapacity for reform and has remained steadfast in its demands for a democratic secular republic in Iran, is the only option for a free and stable Iran.

(Firouz Mahvi, is member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Iranian Parliament in Exile . Follow him on Twitter: @FirouzMahvi)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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