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NUKEWARS
N.Korea crisis could spur action on Iran, say analysts
by Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) April 06, 2013


World powers, Iran seek to break nuclear talks deadlock
Almaty, Kazakhstan (AFP) April 06, 2013 - Iran and world powers met Saturday for the second and final day of new talks aimed at breaking a decade-old deadlock over Tehran's nuclear drive, with the clock again ticking down again on efforts to find a solution.

The two sides held an indecisive first day of negotiations in the Kazakh city of Almaty on Friday that ended with only an agreement to meet again and Western officials admitting the positions were still far apart.

They most notably failed to resolve the main issue on the table -- whether Iran will accept some demands concerning its nuclear programme in return for relief on the sanctions that have hurt the Islamic republic's economy in the past two years.

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton started the day Saturday by meeting chief Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili.

"During Ms Ashton and Dr Saeed Jalili's meeting this morning the latest situation of the negotiations and different aspects of each side's stances were discussed in detail," said an Iranian official.

"The sides also exchanged views on ways to progress along the path of negotiations," said the official.

The Iranian delegation also met separately with French and Chinese diplomats before all sides went into a full plenary session that is expected to conclude the Almaty talks.

Iran resolutely insists on international recognition of its right to enrich uranium and wants that condition be a part of any deal.

The world powers on the other hand say the onus is on Iran to take the first step. They insist on it ending enrichment to high levels and shuttering the Fordo mountain bunker where such activity takes place before any recognition for Iran's nuclear rights are granted.

The talks concluded on Friday after two plenary sessions lasting a combined six hours with Iran answering a series of questions about its list of demands.

A Western official said the two sides still had strongly differing visions of ways to solve the dispute.

"We had a long and substantial discussion on the issues, but we remain a long way apart on the substance," the Western official said after Friday's talks.

"We are now evaluating the situation and will meet again tomorrow (Saturday)."

Russian negotiator Sergei Ryabkov summed up the day by saying that the difficulty at the talks proved their seriousness.

"The answers prompted more questions," Russian news agencies quoted Ryabkov as saying. "But this proves that these talks are serious."

And US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland also sought to sound upbeat.

"They were talking about the real issues at hand, which, as you know, has not always been the case," she told reporters in Washington.

"But that's a different matter than whether they actually made progress that we can report yet."

Iran in particular wants to see an end to the biting sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States that limit the Islamic republic's banking activities that cut the amount of cash it can get for the oil it still manages to sell abroad.

The powers -- comprised of the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany and known collectively as the P5+1 -- argue that such a sweeping gesture does not correspond with their persistent concerns over the possible military dimensions of Iran's work.

The P5+1 grouping is particularly worried about Iran's enrichment to levels of up to 20 percent and want Iran to ship out its existing stockpile of 20-percent enriched material.

With North Korea issuing apocalyptic threats of nuclear war in recent weeks, Western powers have been reminded of what could happen if they fail to find a solution to Iran's disputed nuclear programme, experts say.

World powers "are now even more anxious not to have with Iran a situation like the one we have with North Korea," Oliver Thraenert, head of the Centre for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, told AFP.

On Friday, Iran and the so-called P5+1 -- the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia) plus Germany -- met in Almaty for fresh nuclear talks in the hope of a breakthrough.

"The P5+1 will be even more mindful of the need to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis before it gets to the stage of North Korea and possessing a nuclear weapon, which would make the situation in Iran ever so much more complicated and dangerous," said Mark Fitzpatrick of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Whereas Pyongyang has already proven its nuclear might with three nuclear tests -- including one as recently as February -- the debate over Iran still revolves around whether it is developing an atomic bomb under the cover of its civilian nuclear programme.

Western powers have been pressing Tehran however to cut uranium enrichment and close a nuclear facility at Fordo to alleviate fears it is seeking the bomb.

North Korea's current brinkmanship -- even threatening a nuclear strike on the US -- may not be "directly affecting" the Almaty talks, but "it certainly is in the minds of many of the participants," Fitzpatrick told AFP.

Tehran denies it is seeking the bomb, insisting its nuclear programme is purely for civilian purposes.

But its continued efforts to enrich uranium to levels that can produce material for a bomb have seen it slapped by a series of UN and international sanctions that have hit the country hard.

Now the North Korean crisis could inspire Western powers, especially the United States, to try to restrain Iran with fresh sanctions, according to Fitzpatrick.

Israel, Iran's arch enemy and the sole, though undeclared, nuclear power in the Middle East, could also take action. In the past, it has repeatedly threatened military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.

"The North Korea situation will surely confirm the view in Israel that Iran cannot be allowed to produce nuclear weapons. And that whatever it takes should be undertaken to prevent that," Fitzpatrick said.

Even as Western powers seek to contain Iran, the lack of positive results from North Korea's brazen drive for atomic power could encourage Tehran to slow or even scrap its own efforts.

Pyongyang has suffered under UN sanctions, the regime is isolated diplomatically and its economy is in shambles, noted Oliver Meier of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

"North Korea's behaviour was not without consequences," he told AFP.

"The current crisis in North Korea might still show Iran that possessing nuclear weapons can lead to isolation."

On the other hand, the escalation between Pyongyang and Washington might teach Tehran a thing or two about how far it can go in defying the West, Thraenert argued.

"Iran has closely observed the situation in and around North Korea for years. Now of course Tehran will watch how much pressure is exerted on North Korea," he said.

In the end, significant differences remain between Iran's nuclear drive and that of North Korea, from Pyongyang's one-man rule to its withdrawal from the non-proliferation regime.

Tehran, on the other hand, is still a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and subject to inspections by the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"That's why it's so important that the international community send a clear signal to Iran that (possessing nuclear weapons) would be very costly," said Meier.

"The path to the atomic bomb is not a decision that will enhance Iran's role in the world."

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