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Mattis in Asia, fixing Trump-rattled relationships one by one
By Paul HANDLEY
Washington (AFP) June 30, 2018

US weighs withdrawing troops from Germany: report
Washington (AFP) June 30, 2018 - The Pentagon is evaluating the costs of transferring or withdrawing troops from Germany, where the United States has its biggest contingent outside the country, The Washington Post reported Friday.

President Donald Trump has already discussed the proposal, which has worried European NATO allies, with military officials.

Among the options under consideration are repatriating a large contingent of the approximately 35,000 active duty troops, or a full or partial move of the military personnel from Germany to Poland, according to the Post.

Citing anonymous sources, the newspaper stressed that the study was only an internal examination of options at this stage.

A White House National Security Council spokesman denied any such analysis.

Pentagon spokesman Eric Pahon also denied any plans for a withdrawal.

"The Pentagon regularly reviews force posture and performs cost-benefit analyses," he said in a statement.

"This is nothing new. Germany is host to the largest US force presence in Europe -- we remain deeply rooted in the common values and strong relationships between our countries. We remain fully committed to our NATO ally and the NATO alliance."

The US president is due to attend the transatlantic group's summit in Brussels on July 11-12, when he is sure to pressure allies to spend at least two percent of their GDP on defense, in accordance with a target NATO members agreed to reach by 2024.

Germany, which has had tense ties with the US in recent months, has already indicated it will be unable to meet that goal. Poland, however, has met the target.

Trump insists that Washington is shouldering too much of the group's financial burden.

US troops have been stationed in Germany since World War II, and the presence there serves as a base for US operations in Africa and the Middle East.

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis spent four days in East Asia trying to keep on the rails key relationships -- two friendly, one adversarial -- that his boss President Donald Trump has thrown into confusion.

It's now a familiar role for the Pentagon chief, not just in Asia but across Europe and the Middle East. With Trump disrupting one relationship after another, provoking rivals and unnerving friends, Mattis is the one making sure they can still work on their traditional foundations.

This week, he had to tell the leaders of South Korea and Japan -- close allies who have depended on the US security umbrella for decades -- that Washington remains committed to protecting them.

That was always understood before Trump suddenly canceled defense exercises with South Korea as an enticement to North Korea's Kim Jong Un to negotiate giving up his nuclear weapons.

And Mattis had to cut through the noise of Trump's trade war threat against China to deliver one of the toughest warnings in recent years, that the US has grown dangerously impatient with Beijing's military expansionism in the region.

The challenge was to get the Chinese to focus on his terse, carefully calibrated message and not conflate the US president's trade hoopla, so that they do not overreact.

"I'm here to keep our relationship on the right trajectory, keep it going in the right direction and to share ideas with your military leadership, as well as look at the way ahead," the Pentagon chief told Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Mattis, a 67-year-old Marine veteran of multiple wars and conflicts, and a deep student of history, insists he is only advancing administration policy.

But under Trump, it is an uphill battle to prevent key relationships from souring.

Japan and South Korea alike have been deeply worried about the US security commitment after Trump's historic summit with Kim in Singapore on June 12.

As they agreed to enter into denuclearization talks, Trump abruptly canceled a key US-South Korea exercise slated for later this year.

Despite their longstanding effect of keeping North Korea at bay, Trump called the war games "expensive" and "provocative."

How worried were the allies? In Seoul, Mattis had to declare bluntly that US troop levels in South Korea, the central pillar of the US defense commitment, would not change, and reiterate that the US commitment was "ironclad."

In Tokyo, he pledged a continuing strong, "collaborative" defense stance with regional allies, and that Japan will remain a "cornerstone" of regional stability.

His predecessors never had to travel to the region to make that so clear.

- 'Increasingly concerned' -

And yet, with US negotiations with Pyongyang hyper-secret, allies still aren't sure.

"They are increasingly concerned and worried about the reliability of our reassurances," said James Schoff, a former senior Pentagon East Asia specialist now in the Carnegie Asia Program.

In meetings Friday with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Japan's foreign and defense ministers, Mattis was repeatedly reminded that if the US negotiates only to eliminate North Korea's nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles which can strike the United States, Japan will still feel deeply vulnerable.

Tokyo pressed the US defense chief to ensure that North Korea's other weapons of mass destruction, chemical and biological weapons, and its short- and medium-range ballistic missiles that can deliver them to South Korea and Japan, are also included.

Mattis could not make that promise, saying the talks are in the hands of "the diplomats."

But he said the two sides discussed the possibility of deepening their military relationship, and told Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera "to remember you have a friend in the Pentagon."

In China, Mattis sought to warn that Beijing weaponizing small islands in the South China Sea and its stepped-up pressure against Taiwan, the longtime US security ally that China views as a renegade province, were close to going too far.

It was possibly one of the most serious and delicate messages Mattis had to deliver yet in the 17 months of the Trump administration.

But it came as Trump appeared on the verge of launching an all-out commercial war against Beijing, creating the possibility that China would conflate the two and overreact.

It was a tense balancing act, and though US officials said their Chinese opposites were positively engaged in the discussions, in a statement Xi toughly rebuffed the criticisms on the South China Sea and Taiwan, saying China would not give up "one inch" of its territory.

But the reception Mattis had in Beijing, meeting not only Xi but the country's top military leaders, showed they were ready to pay attention.

Still, the question leaders in East Asia and elsewhere have is, as trustworthy as Mattis is, does Trump pay him any heed?

"There are some things the Asian leaders can't control. Mattis clearly realizes there are some elements that he may not be able to control," said Schoff.


Related Links
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com


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NATO chief congratulates Erdogan on Turkey election win
Luxembourg (AFP) June 25, 2018
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on Monday congratulated Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his re-election, but stressed the alliance was founded on "core values" of democracy, rights and rule of law. Erdogan won another five years in office in Sunday's vote and immediately pledged to implement changes that boost his authority, which opponents fear will give him autocratic powers. Turkey is an important member of NATO because of its strategic location bordering Iraq and Syria and close to Russ ... read more

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