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MISSILE DEFENSE
Israelis worry missile defenses too weak
by Staff Writers
Tel Aviv, Israel (UPI) May 7, 2010


Surprise dinner fails to break Iran nuclear deadlock
Washington (AFP) May 7, 2010 - A surprise, high-profile UN dinner failed to break the deadlock with Iran over its nuclear plans as the United States called it a "missed opportunity" and kept up the pressure Friday for UN sanctions. The Obama administration also claimed that Iran's dinner invitation to all 15 UN Security Council members on Thursday is another sign that Tehran is worried about its international isolation and that US diplomacy is paying off. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said the US and other guests at the dinner hosted by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki failed to bridge gaps over a proposed nuclear fuel swap deal with Iran. In a "frank and professional exchange" with Mottaki, US diplomat Alejandro Wolff and other council representatives "pointed out the significant flaws and shortcomings in Iran's approach," Crowley said.

"Mottaki focused on the Iranian counterproposal to the Tehran research reactor, which deviates in significant ways from the balanced IAEA proposal that Iran agreed to and then walked away from last October," Crowley said. "But we see this as yet another missed opportunity by Iran to meet its international obligations," Crowley said. The United States has been spearheading a drive for a fourth round of UN Security Council sanctions. It is trying to get Iran to stop enriching uranium, which can be used as fuel either for civilian power reactors or atomic weapons. However, China is the main holdout to tougher sanctions on the UN Security Council, along with Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon. A previously reluctant Russia now appears more open to sanctions.

But Crowley said that, during the dinner, both Russia and China joined "in pressing Iran... to change its course." China and Russia along with Britain, France and the United States are the permanent five veto-wielding members of the Security Council. Crowley also said US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton meanwhile Friday reviewed efforts for a new sanctions resolution in a conference call with senior diplomats from France, Britain, Germany and the European Union. "There's still work (for a resolution) to do. And we will... be moving that forward in the coming weeks," Crowley said. Later he said: "We look forward to a very strong, united, international statement that tells Iran it's got to change course and meet its fundamental obligations." Japanese ambassador Yukio Takasu, who was at the dinner in Mottaki's residence, said later there were no talks that evening about sanctions.

Anne-Marie Slaughter, the State Department's director of policy planning, told department colleagues that Iran is trying all the harder to engage the international community in a bid to stop its growing isolation. "President (Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad coming to the UN, the dinner last night... I read these as signs that the government is quite worried," Slaughter told diplomats and Foreign Service staff in a speech broadcast to journalists. The Iranians are trying hard than in the past "to try to stop anything that will make them more isolated. I read that as some sign of our success," Slaughter said. Ahmadinejad was the only head of state to travel to the United Nations for the first two days of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference. And the dinner invitation to the 15 council members -- with journalists observing all but diplomats from Nigeria and Gabon showing up -- yielded one of the highest-level US-Iran contacts since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Washington and Tehran have had no diplomatic relations since April 1980, and face-to-face encounters between the countries' senior officials are rare.

Despite the efforts of Israel's defense industry to develop a range of anti-missile systems, Israeli security officials are increasingly concerned the Jewish state doesn't have enough protection against Hezbollah's growing arsenal.

The Syrian-manufactured M600 missiles Hezbollah reportedly received in 2009 are seen as a particular threat. These carry guidance systems, unlike most of the 45,000 rockets and missiles Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak says the Iranian-backed Lebanese movement possesses.

The head of the Israeli air force's air defense command, Brig. Gen. Doron Gavish has said that the systems currently deployed in Israel could be overwhelmed by "the massive deployment of weapons of this type in enemy countries and terror organizations."

Gavish's comments, made at Israel's first international conference on anti-missile systems near Tel Aviv, "left no room for doubt about Israel's concerns over the tens of thousands of rockets and advanced missiles being acquired by Syria, Iran and Hezbollah," the liberal Haaretz daily reported.

At present, the air force operates several batteries of the Arrow-2 anti-ballistic missile interceptors that are designed to destroy long-range missiles like Iran's Shehab-3B and its successor, the Sejjil-2, which has yet to become operational.

The Arrow, developed in the 1990s by Israel Aircraft Industries -- now Israel Aerospace Industries -- is considered reliable as a high-altitude, long-range interceptor.

The more advanced Arrow-3, when it becomes operational, will be even more effective. But it has never been tested in action against a mass assault by Iranian ballistic missiles.

The Arrow is the top-tier of a planned Israeli multi-layered, interlinked missile defense shield. Iron Dome, the bottom tier, has just become operational with one battery deployed and another preparing to do so.

It is designed to knock out short-range missiles such as the 122mm Katyushas and Grads used by Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

But Israeli officials argue that the air force will need at least another dozen batteries to cope with the hundreds of missiles and rockets that Hezbollah alone could unleash on a daily basis for a prolonged period.

During Hezbollah's 34-day war with Israel in July and August 2006, Hezbollah hammered northern Israel with nearly 4,000 rockets and the plan for an integrated missile defense system effectively emerged from that experience.

At that time, Israel had no dedicated anti-missile defenses against such a sustained and unprecedented barrage and the air force was unable to counter it.

Hezbollah was able to fire 150 to 200 projectiles a day for a month out of an arsenal of some 12,000-13,000.

"If that ratio is maintained today, with a (Hezbollah) arsenal of 45,000 rockets, we can expect 15,000 rockets to be fired at Israel and possibly far more," observed Chuck Freilich, a former deputy security adviser in Israel and now a senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School.

"This poses new and heretofore unknown threats to Israel's home front and makes it truly essential that Israel gets it right this time."

The middle tier of the intended missile shield, a system known as David's Sling, sometimes called Magic Wand, is being developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and U.S. defense giant Raytheon.

It is designed to counter mid-range missiles but is unlikely to become operational, even in limited numbers, until 2013 at the earliest.

Much has been made in recent weeks of Israel's claim that Syria has supplied Hezbollah with Soviet-era ballistic Scud missiles with a range of up to 430 miles. This has been greeted with considerable skepticism, since Hezbollah, whose military doctrine is largely based on agility, mobility and deception, has little need for a system that is so cumbersome, vulnerable and inaccurate.

The road-mobile M600, the Syrian version of Iran's Fateh-110 missile, is more accurate, although it carries a smaller warhead, and can be launched within minutes because it uses solid fuel. It has a range of 190 miles.

"M600s are the true threat Hezbollah poses to Israel," Haaretz's diplomatic correspondent Amos Harel wrote in Thursday's edition.

"With enough M600s, Hezbollah could systematically bombard Israel's most strategic sites. Israel's missile defense systems, meanwhile, are far from adequateÂ…

"Unless the Israel Defense Force starts bolstering its defensive capabilities -- and not just its offensive ones -- it risks being prepared for the most convenient scenario, rather than the one that is actually likely to happen."

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Related Links
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
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MISSILE DEFENSE
Israel seeks U.S. aid for Iron Dome
Tel Aviv, Israel (UPI) May 4, 2010
As Hezbollah builds up its rocket arsenal, Israel has asked Washington to help pay for more Iron Dome anti-missile batteries to shield the Jewish state. The Jerusalem Post reports that the Israeli Defense Ministry wants to buy more than a dozen batteries of the system designed to counter short-range missiles fired by the Iranian-backed Lebanese guerrillas and Palestinian Hamas militants ... read more


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