Iran nuclear deal: what happens now?

After Iran's announcement on Wednesday that it will stop respecting some limits on its nuclear activities imposed under a landmark 2015 deal with world powers, attention has turned to what repercussions the latest move will have.

Tehran's announcement came exactly a year after the US withdrew from the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with further measures threatened if the agreement's other signatories fail to mitigate the impact of renewed American sanctions within 60 days.

- What is the significance of Iran's announcement? -

Experts said Iran's announcement has come in reaction to domestic pressure over the crippling impact of US sanctions.

Rather than a serious escalation of its nuclear programme, it is being read as a way of putting pressure on the other signatories -- notably Germany, France and the UK.

Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations told AFP that Tehran's announcement was a "real warning shot", showing a shift from an approach "of strategic patience to strategic action".

Robert Kelley, who previously worked in the US's nuclear weapons programme and is now at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), said Iran's announcement was a measure "to save face".

Iran needs neither more enriched uranium stocks nor the heavy water -- as they don't have a reactor that uses heavy water anymore -- while new US sanctions prevented it from selling any excess, he added.

- Is Iran going to try to build a nuclear weapon? -

Kelley told AFP that, despite Wednesday's announcement, there would be "an infinite way" to go for Iran to build a weapon as, for one, it requires uranium enriched to a much higher degree, and Iran is under daily inspections by the UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, which monitors the deal's implementation.

"As long as everything is under IAEA safeguards and inspected daily, everyone will know exactly what is going on," said Kelley, a former director of IAEA nuclear inspections.

The IAEA would find out "within a week" when the stocks of enriched uranium and heavy water had exceeded the prescribed limits, he said.

- How will other signatories react? -

In their first reactions, Britain, Germany and France have already condemned Iran's announcement, urging it to uphold the nuclear pact.

Geranmayeh said it was unlikely deal signatories would re-instate sanctions on Iran at this point.

"There is nothing to be gained at the moment by the Europeans joining the maximum pressure campaign of the United States other than potential military conflict on their doorstep," she said.

But if they didn't want Iran to break further commitments, deal signatories would have to step up their game, she added. That for example could mean pressuring Washington to lift sanctions and implementing INSTEX, a trade mechanism Britain, France and Germany introduced in January to allow Tehran to keep trading with EU companies bypassing US sanctions.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has accused in particular the European signatories of not fulfilling their obligations under the deal, issuing "good statements" but not following through with action.

- Can the deal survive? -

The UK's former ambassador to Tehran, Richard Dalton, told AFP how the deal could continue to exist was not clear.

"It's not yet clear whether the European governments feel they can do anything in the next 60 days that they have been unable to do in the last 365," said Dalton, now president of the British Iranian Chamber of Commerce.

Trita Parsi, founder and former president of the National Iranian American Council and a vocal supporter of the agreement, said Europe was in a "difficult spot".

"If it fulfils its obligations under the nuclear deal, it will face costly tensions with Washington."

But if the EU toes the American line, it would "face the risk of (US national security adviser) John Bolton starting a war with Iran whose repercussions to Europe will be far greater than that of the Iraq war," Parsi said in a statement.

Dalton said the US could yet succeed in making the deal collapse.

"Not only is the United States destroying the EU's economic sovereignty -- and acting directly against EU security interests and global non proliferation -- but they're also seriously risking a war," he said.

How UN scrutinises Iran's nuclear programme
Vienna (AFP) May 8, 2019 - Iran's announcement on Wednesday that it would no longer respect limits on nuclear activities under a landmark 2015 deal have raised fresh fears over whether the painstakingly negotiated accord can survive.

Tehran's move comes a year to the day since US President Donald Trump dramatically withdrew from the agreement and proceeded to re-introduce sanctions which have hit the Iranian economy hard.

The UN's Vienna-based nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has had the delicate task of verifying the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), through regular inspections of Iranian facilities.

- Will Iran's move affect inspections? -

Iran did not announce any measures on Wednesday which would appear to impede the IAEA's inspection regime.

"If it's just a matter of now they are starting to accumulate a quantity (of heavy water or uranium) larger than agreed upon, the IAEA will know that within a week," said Robert Kelley, a former director of nuclear inspections at the IAEA.

"As long as everything is under IAEA safeguards and inspected daily, everyone will know exactly what is going on," Kelley added.

The IAEA insists the inspection regime put in place by the JCPOA is the world's toughest, and in each of its quarterly reports on Iran it has confirmed that Tehran is abiding by the deal.

Under the "Additional Protocol" agreed with Iran, inspectors may "conduct complementary access to any location in Iran".

The agency says that its inspection work has doubled since 2013.

IAEA Secretary General Yukiya Amano says the agency's inspectors spend a total of 3,000 calendar days per year on the ground in Iran.

He has also highlighted some 2,000 tamper-proof seals attached to nuclear material and equipment and the "hundreds of thousands of images captured daily by our sophisticated surveillance cameras", the number of which has almost doubled since 2013.

- Why the IAEA? -

Set up in 1957, the IAEA promotes peaceful uses of atomic energy while at the same time overseeing efforts to detect and prevent possible nuclear weapons proliferation.

Because of previous international concern over its nuclear programme, Iran agreed in 2003 to allow snap IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities.

However, cooperation broke down in 2006. The IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, which went on to impose sanctions, and Iran halted enhanced IAEA inspections.

A renewed diplomatic push eventually led to the JCPOA in 2015, under which the agency is charged with regular inspections of declared facilities in Iran such as uranium mines and centrifuge workshops for up to 25 years.

The aim is to ensure that Iran is not holding undeclared stocks of nuclear material and is not enriching uranium past a certain level.

- Political pressures -

In addition to the US withdrawing from the deal, Israel -- Iran's regional arch-foe -- has also been highly critical of the JCPOA.

In August 2017, Washington's envoy to the UN Nikki Haley urged the IAEA to widen its inspections, including to military sites.

A year later in an address to the UN General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran had a "secret atomic warehouse" as part of a clandestine nuclear programme and called on the IAEA to inspect the site immediately.

In January, Amano rejected pressure on the agency, saying: "If our credibility is thrown into question, and, in particular, if attempts are made to micro-manage or put pressure on the Agency in nuclear verification, that is counter-productive and extremely harmful."

In its most recent reports on the JCPOA, the agency has also taken to reminding Iran that "timely and proactive co-operation" in providing access to locations it wishes to inspect would "enhance confidence".

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Iran to end curbs on uranium enrichment stockpile
Tehran (AFP) May 8, 2019
Iran said Wednesday it will stop respecting limits on its nuclear activities agreed under a landmark 2015 deal unless other powers help Tehran bypass renewed US sanctions, amid rising tensions with Washington. The move was part of a package of measures announced by Iran in response to the sweeping unilateral sanctions reimposed by Washington in the 12 months since it quit the agreement, which have had a severe effect on the Iranian economy. They came as Washington stepped up its war of words aga ... read more