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NUKEWARS
Iran boosts air defenses, but holes remain
by Staff Writers
Beirut, Lebanon (UPI) Sep 24, 2012


World powers to meet on Iran on sidelines of UN talks
United Nations (AFP) Sept 25, 2012 - World powers leading negotiations with Iran to try to persuade it to abandon its suspect nuclear program will meet Thursday on the sidelines of a UN summit, a US official said.

The official, who asked to remain anonymous, said ministers from the P5+1 group -- the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France plus Germany -- would hold talks in New York to see how they could push the talks forward.

"We can confirm that there will be on Thursday a meeting of the P5+1 at the political directors level, that will be followed by a P5+1 ministerial," the official told reporters late Tuesday.

"It is a way for the P5+1 to consult and take stock of where we are and consider our next steps."

The news came as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shrugged off threats of a military strike on his country's nuclear facilities, showing defiance ahead of his final appearance at the UN General Assembly this week.

Ahmadinejad criticized Western powers for their sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program and for allowing filmmakers and cartoonists to lampoon the Prophet Mohammed in what he branded a "sacrilege" of Islam.

The United States and its European allies accuse Iran of seeking to develop a nuclear bomb and the UN Security Council has imposed four rounds of sanctions against Iran.

Ahmadinejad's government insists it is seeking peaceful applications of nuclear power in energy generation and medical research.

"We are working with our P5+1 partners to rachet up pressure, but as the president and secretary has said, there's still time for diplomacy," the US official said.

"We are always looking to see how we can advance the ball in terms of trying to get Iran to comply with its international obligations.

"It is important that we remain focused on this. It is an urgent matter. We certainly have seen tremendous P5+1 unity with relation to Iran. I think it was just an opportune time" for the group to meet, he added.

EU mulls 'full' financial freeze, shipping ban on Iran
Brussels (AFP) Sept 24, 2012 - EU nations are discussing a British sanctions proposal against Iran that notably calls for a ban on shipping and "full" freeze on financial transactions with Iran's central bank, European diplomats said Tuesday.

"Most member states are largely supportive" of the proposals, an EU diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

"The discussions are ongoing, there is still a long way to go," cautioned another source who also asked not to be named.

Britain, France and Germany jointly urged their European Union partners last week to step up pressure on Iran over its contested nuclear drive by agreeing new sanctions to be adopted at EU foreign ministers' talks in Luxembourg on October 15.

Currently under discussion is a London proposal to strengthen existing punitive measures in four areas -- finance, trade, energy and transport. The Netherlands has tabled similar ideas.

The hardest-hitting British suggestions, according to an EU diplomat, are a "full freeze on Iran's central bank, on all its financial transactions" as well as "a wide sectorial ban on shipping".

Some EU nations, however, including Spain and Sweden, were concerned that the freeze would be tantamount to a ban on trade, "but it is not," a diplomat said.

France and Germany too "needed reassuring", the diplomat added.

Current EU sanctions against Iran's central bank were drafted to ensure that an assets freeze did not affect trade between the 27-nation bloc and Iran.

Shipping nations Denmark and Greece for their part were worried by the proposed ban on shipping.

Iran's been showing off a new air-defense system designed to counter U.S., and Israeli, airstrikes. But Western military analysts say there are a lot of holes in the network that could prove costly for Tehran if fighting erupts in the Persian Gulf.

Iranian Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' aerospace division, declared Friday when the new system was displayed for the first time in Tehran, "This system has been built with the aim of confronting American warplanes."

He said the system, dubbed Raad, which means "thunder" in Farsi, comprises surface-to-air missiles with a range of 30 miles capable of engaging targets up to 75,000 feet altitude.

The display took place as major U.S.-led naval exercises were conducted in the gulf amid growing tension with Iran over its refusal to abandon its controversial nuclear program.

Israel, which views that program and Iran's drive to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles as an existential threat, has repeatedly threatened to unleash pre-emptive attacks.

The Americans oppose unilateral Israeli action, fearing it will trigger a regional conflict, but have been moving naval and air forces into the region in a show of force.

Military analysts say Israel, which is capable of launching limited air and missile strikes on Iran, wouldn't be able to deliver a knockout blow against Iran's widely dispersed and heavily protected nuclear facilities.

The Americans, with far greater military resources, can mount a sustained campaign to destroy nuclear facilities, with key plants buried deep in heavily protected underground bunkers, air defense concentrations and ballistic missile launch pads that could be used for retaliatory strikes.

The U.S. campaign, which could last for weeks, would involve offensive operations dominated by air and naval forces.

"An initial U.S. strike will require a large force allocation consisting of defense counter-air and offensive counter-air operations, such as the main Bomber Force, the Suppression of Enemy Air Defense System, escort aircraft for the protection of the bombers, electronic warfare for detection and jamming purposes, fighter sweep and combat air patrol to counter any retaliation by Iran," says a Sept. 4 study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Iran, reasoning that any major conflict with the United States, the gulf monarchies or Israel would be primarily an air and sea war, has devoted considerable time and treasure on upgrading its long-weak air defenses.

The Islamic Republic "has extensive surface-to-air missile assets but most are obsolete or obsolescent," said the report written by veteran U.S. analyst Anthony Cordesman of the CSIS and Abdullah Toukan of Jordan's Strategic Analysis and Global Risk Assessment Center.

"Iran's systems are poorly netted, have significant gaps and problems in their radar and sensor coverage and modernization and a number of its systems are vulnerable to electronic warfare," they observed.

The air-defense system, estimated at 41 active sites, was built around one overseen by the Americans during the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, toppled in the 1979 Islamic revolution.

This system largely comprised 1960s-era MIM-23 HAWK and MIM-23B Improved-HAWK missiles. These mobile weapons, built by Raytheon, have a range of 25-30 miles and a ceiling of 58,000 feet.

Iran still has around 150, spread over 22 active sites around the country, including Tehran.

But, Cordesman and Toukan noted, the United States "never delivered integrated systems before the fall of the shah so Iran has never had a fully functioning air defense system."

Iran's only modern short-range defense system is the Russian Tor-M1, built by Almaz-Antei. Tehran bought 27 batteries from Moscow in a $700 million deal in 2005.

These weapons, designed to counter aircraft and cruise missiles at altitudes up to 6 miles, are believed to be concentrated around key nuclear sites.

Iran's strategic SAM air-defense weapons include the Russian S-200 system deployed at seven sites, including three at the nuclear facilities at Isfahan and Natanz.

The NPO-Almaz S-200, designed to protect large areas from strategic bombing, has a range of 150 miles and a ceiling of 65,000 feet.

The CSIS report says Iran's largely obsolete air force won't be a major obstacle to a U.S. assault.

Much of its fighter strength comprises rundown 1970s-era U.S.-built F-14 Tomcats. It most advanced jets are 30 MiG-29s from Russia "whose avionics lag far behind their Russian counterparts."

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