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 By Paul HANDLEY Washington (AFP) Jan 9, 2020
US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Wednesday that the US strike that killed a top Iranian general had restored credibility to the US threat to Tehran to restrain itself militarily. "I believe that we've restored a level of deterrence with them," he said. But Washington security analysts say it is far from certain that Tehran has been deterred from further attacks on the United States and its allies, and that it might not be long before it challenges President Donald Trump again. In the short run tensions could ease after Iran retaliated for Revolutionary Guards Commander Qasem Soleimani's death last week by firing 12 ballistic missiles at two US bases in Iraq, causing damage but killing no one. But that is "just the beginning," said Kaleigh Thomas, a Middle East security analyst at the Center for a New American Security. Soleimani's death in a US drone strike last Friday "has definitely changed the tone of tensions going forward," she said. "They're going to be planning strategically, investing in ways to inflict pain on the United States." - 'Impulsive decision' - For effective deterrence, Thomas said, the Trump administration lacks a coherent message that Tehran can make sense of -- what response it can expect from the United States to what provocative actions -- as well as a back channel to communicate, like previous administrations had. She faulted Trump's inconsistent responses last year after the Revolutionary Guards shot down two US drones, allegedly damaged multiple tankers in the Gulf, and allegedly launched missiles on Saudi oil installations. In each case the US response was hesitant and minimal, emboldening Tehran. "A lot of deterrence ... is this idea of, there are patterns, and that way, everyone's kind of on the same page," said Thomas. "If we're reading two different books, something's gonna go wrong." On the other hand, she said, the "impulsive decision" to kill Soleimani to re-establish deterrence appeared disproportional to Tehran's most recent actions -- supporting rocket strikes on US installations in Iraq and backing protestors who stormed the reception building at the US embassy in Baghdad. Tehran might now be tentative about reacting, but is "motivated to act and to find ways to inflict pain upon the United States." - Hard to deter 'revolutionary' regimes - Retired General David Petraeus, who once led US forces in the Middle East, said he was optimistic that killing Soleimani delivered a strong message that Tehran will have to heed. It was "a very significant effort to re-establish deterrence, which obviously had not been shored up by the relatively insignificant responses up until now," Petraeus told Foreign Policy magazine. James Phillips, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said it was important for the Trump administration to enforce its red lines after having shied from responding for so long. But it is hard to establish credible deterrence against a regime like Iran, where Soleimani's Revolutionary Guards were "willing to sacrifice Iran's national interests in order to advance the regime's more narrow revolutionary interests," Phillips said. "I think, unfortunately, also Tehran may have interpreted the Trump administration's previous restraint as weakness." Former US senior diplomat Nicolas Burns said it was "far too early" to declare success in delivering a credible threat message to Tehran. "Iran has a brutal history of using proxy forces to attack the US and others," he told AFP. "They could well do that in the coming weeks or months." - Iran's nuclear threat - More challenging is Tehran's threat this week to restart its program to develop nuclear weapons by producing weapons-grade uranium. Thomas said the US inability to deter Iran is rooted in Trump's unilateral decision in 2018 to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal which froze that program, and place more sanctions on the country. After that, she said, "I think it was it was total confusion about what United States actually wanted from Iran." Andrea Stricker of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a conservative Washington thinktank, wrote Wednesday that Washington needs urgently to make clear to Iran that it would be willing to bomb the country if it nears such a "nuclear breakout". "The United States should avoid additional kinetic conflict with Iran if possible, but Washington must be willing to employ all instruments of national power against Iran if it appears to be approaching breakout," she wrote Wednesday.
Trump pulls back from war with Iran In a televised address to the nation from the White House, Trump emphasized there were "no Americans harmed" in the ballistic missile salvo aimed at two bases. While he promised to immediately impose "punishing" new economic sanctions on Tehran, Trump welcomed signs the Islamic republic "appears to be standing down" in the tit-for-tat confrontation. The comments cooled what threatened to become an uncontrolled boiling over of tensions after Trump ordered the killing last Friday of a top Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani. In New York, the Nasdaq stock market index surged to a record high of 9,129.24. However, the US president, facing both an impeachment trial in Congress and a tough reelection in November, defended his targeting of a man seen by many as Iran's second most influential official. Soleimani, a national hero at home, was "the world's top terrorist" and "should have been terminated long ago," Trump said. And although Trump ended his remarks with a call for peace, he opened by stating that he would never allow Iran to procure a nuclear weapon. It was Trump's 2018 withdrawal from a multinational agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions, and the reimposition of crippling economic sanctions against Tehran, which began an intensification of tensions between the two countries. - Missiles blast bases - Iran's missiles targeted the sprawling Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq and a base in Arbil, both housing American and other foreign troops from a US-led coalition fighting the remnants of the Islamic State jihadist group. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who earlier promised "revenge" for Soleimani, called the missiles a "slap in the face" against the United States. He indicated there was more to come. "The question of revenge is another issue," Khamenei said in a televised speech. Iraq's military said it also sustained no casualties. But the strike highlighted the difficult position of Iraq, caught in an ever-deepening conflict between Trump and Iran. The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, dismissed suggestions that Iran did not mean to kill Americans with the missile barrage. "I believe, based on what I saw and what I know, is that they were intended to cause structural damage, destroy vehicles and equipment and aircraft and to kill personnel. That's my own personal assessment," Milley told reporters. Iraqi President Barham Saleh rejected Iraq being a "battlefield for warring sides." At the United Nations, Iran's ambassador said in a letter to Secretary General Antonio Guterres that despite the missile firing, Iran respects Iraq's territorial integrity. Iran has powerful militia allies in Iraq and they said they intended to take revenge for Friday's US drone attack, in which top Iraqi paramilitary commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis died alongside Soleimani. Muhandis was the deputy head of Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi, a military network incorporated into the Iraqi state whose factions are backed by Tehran. Late Wednesday two rockets, fired by unidentified forces, landed in the supposedly high-security Green Zone, where US and other embassies are located, security sources said. AFP correspondents heard two loud detonations. - Unusual brazenness - The brazenness of Iran's ballistic missile strike was unusual. But as the dust settled, it appeared that Iran's attack -- coming soon after the burial of Soleimani at a funeral in front of vast crowds -- might have been more symbolic than anything. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif indicated Iran was satisfied for now. "Iran took and concluded proportionate measures in self-defense," Zarif said on Twitter. Reflecting deep concerns among Trump's domestic opponents, the Democratic-led US House of Representatives scheduled a vote for Thursday on limiting the Republican president's ability to wage war against Iran without congressional approval. "The president has made clear that he does not have a coherent strategy to keep the American people safe, achieve de-escalation with Iran and ensure stability in the region," House speaker Nancy Pelosi said. But US Defense Secretary Mark Esper insisted the United States has restored some deterrence against Iran in the wake of the Soleimani killing. "But we will see. Time will tell," Esper said. - US headaches in Iraq - The apparent de-escalation in Iran did not remove pressure from approximately 5,200 US troops stationed across Iraq, where they face pro-Iranian Shiite militias and political opposition. Paramilitary chief Qais al-Khazali -- blacklisted as a "terrorist" by the US -- said his side's response to the United States "will be no less than the size of the Iranian response." But US Vice President Mike Pence told the CBS Evening News that "we're receiving some encouraging intelligence that Iran is sending messages to those very same militias not to move against American targets or civilians." Angered at the US drone strike, the Iraqi parliament has called for expulsion of American troops, sparking embarrassing confusion at the Pentagon over how to respond. - Airliner crash kills 176 - Separately, a Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737 crashed just outside Tehran after taking off bound for Kiev, killing all 176 people on board shortly after Iran launched its missiles towards Iraq. There was no immediate suggestion of any link with the strikes but carriers including Air France, Royal Dutch Airlines and Lufthansa announced they were suspending flying though Iranian and Iraqi airspace as a precaution. The US aviation regulator banned civil flights over Iraq, Iran and the Gulf, citing the potential for "misidentification" of aircraft.
Iran says 'took and concluded proportionate' self-defence Tehran (AFP) Jan 8, 2020 Iran on Wednesday said it had carried out and "concluded" its reprisal over the killing of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani when it targeted US forces in Iraq with a missile strike. "Iran took and concluded proportionate measures in self-defence" targeting a base from which a "cowardly armed attack against our citizens and senior officials" was launched, said Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Twitter. "We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggressio ... read more
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