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NUKEWARS
Expectations low for IAEA visit to Iran
by Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) Jan 27, 2012


IAEA chief urges Iran to cooperate with inspectors
Davos, Switzerland (AFP) Jan 27, 2012 - The head of the UN's atomic watchdog urged Iran on Friday to cooperate with a team of inspectors heading to Tehran, after a recent damning report on the Iranian nuclear programme.

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano told AFP that the organisation's previous efforts to check Iran's claim its nuclear programme has only peaceful purposes had been hampered by "a lack of cooperation".

"We hope they will take a constructive approach. We hope that there will be substantial cooperation," Amano said.

An IAEA report in November highlighted a range of areas which had raised suspicions that Iran was pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, despite its repeated denials.

It detailed 12 suspicious areas such as testing explosives in a steel container at a military base and studies on Shahab-3 ballistic missile warheads.

Amano said it was too early to say definitively that Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapons programme.

But he added: "We have information that indicates that Iran has engaged in activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device."

"We are requesting that Iran clarifies the situation. We proposed to make a mission and they agreed to accept the mission.

"The preparations have gone well but we need to see what actually happens when the mission arrives."

UN chief Ban Ki-moon said the onus was on Tehran to prove its good intentions to the inspectors, who will be visiting Iran from Sunday to Tuesday.

"There is no other alternative to addressing this crisis than peaceful resolution through dialogue," Ban told reporters in Davos.

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has insisted that Tehran is not dodging negotiations and was ready to sit down with world powers Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, and Germany for talks.

The six powers are waiting for Tehran to reply to an October letter sent by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton that stresses that discussions should focus on the "key question" of the Iranian nuclear issue.

Previous talks held a year ago in Istanbul ended without progress.

"Iran should comply with the relevant Security Council resolutions. They have to prove themselves, that their nuclear development programme is genuinely for peaceful purposes which they have not done yet," Ban said.

Also in Davos, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said that more major countries, perhaps including China, were coming round to the idea of sanctions.

"China wants to be part of that effort. We're still at the early stage of the next wave of intensified financial pressure on oil and the financial side ... Europe has been excellent on this," he said.

"We are all engaged, it's an international effort ... trying ... to deter them from their nuclear ambitions. That's the most important thing."

China is a major importer of Iranian oil and has so far been reluctant to impose sanctions.

A UN atomic agency team visiting Iran from Sunday is highly unlikely to return with anything substantial enough to ease current tensions, experts including the IAEA's former chief inspector told AFP.

Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said on Tuesday that Tehran hoped the three-day trip would "resolve any ambiguity and show (our) transparency and cooperation with the agency."

But the IAEA team led by chief inspector Herman Nackaerts and the Vienna-based body's number two, Rafael Grossi, will not be given access to any sites mentioned in a damning report by the agency in November, experts say.

"This is not a verification mission," Olli Heinonen, Nackaerts' predecessor and now at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School in the United States, told AFP.

"I don't think we should expect too much."

"My impression from the Iranian public statements is that this is talks about talks. If you look at who is going, it is not an overly technical team."

"I don't expect anything fundamental on the main issues," agreed Bruno Tertrais, senior research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) in Paris.

Even if Nackaerts gets back to Vienna with Iranian promises of a new era of cooperation ringing in his ears, the list of previous false dawns -- and of occasions where Iran was less than open with the agency -- is long.

Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that since the crisis began in 2003 there has been a pattern of Iran "coming up with some gambit ... whenever it is facing the threat of sanctions and punishment."

"It is conceivable that after the meeting with the IAEA, and after discussing the issues with the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany), that in the short term it could result in a commitment to come up with a roadmap for a long-term negotiation.

"But we haven't seen anything since 2003 that looks like that."

The IAEA "has been in and out of Iran for years and has yet to be fully satisfied with regard to Iran's programme," US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said this week.

"There is a lot of work to do. Obviously, one visit by itself ... by the IAEA after all this time can't constitute a complete substantive cooperation and transparency that we, the international community, the IAEA, are calling for."

The November report said its information, backed by more than 1,000 pages of documentation, intelligence from more than 10 countries and its own sources, "indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device."

It detailed 12 suspicious areas such as testing explosives in a steel container at a military base and studies on Shahab-3 ballistic missile warheads that the IAEA said were "highly relevant to a nuclear weapon programme."

Iran, which has come under unprecedented international pressure since the publication of the report, with Washington and the EU targeting its oil sector and central bank, rejected the dossier as based on forgeries.

"This trip is aimed at neutralising enemy plots ... and baseless allegations, and proving the peaceful nature of our nuclear activities," Soltanieh told the official news agency IRNA on Tuesday.

What makes the international community all the more nervous is Tehran's continued defiance of UN Security Council resolutions calling on it to stop enriching uranium until the IAEA is satisfied its programme is peaceful.

Earlier this month the IAEA said Iran had begun enriching uranium to 20-percent purity deep inside a mountain bunker at Fordo, taking it significantly closer to the 90-percent mark needed for a nuclear bomb.

"In my view this (visit) is another opportunity for Iran now to start to come clean because having these questions on weaponisation unanswered, and then at the same time boosting their enrichment capabilities, is a combination which raises legitimate concerns," Heinonen said.

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